by CathiefromCanada
I'm beginning to worry that Democrats are getting complacent about 2004 -- they are peaking too soon in pointing out how bad the circumstances are in America, and they might be starting to think that bad circumstances will win it for them.
Last time, Bush won because Americans came to believe that he was more honest than Gore, and that he was not as dumb as they first thought. It was a triumph of marketing -- to portray Gore as a "liar" and to keep the expectations of Bush so low that, when he didn't fall off the stage during the debates, the spin could be about how impressive his performance was.
So what if this is the situation in October, 2004:
- one or two mid-level white house staffers, not Rove or Libby, resigned over the Phlame leak but were not prosecuted because Ashcroft says they didn't realize she was undercover.
- the wars in Iraq and Afganistan are still going on, 800 troops have been killed and 3,500 injured, but about 40,000 troops have come home. The media is still covering Iraq but people are tired of hearing about it.
- american companies are still making all the money in Iraq, but most voters are OK with that because they figure that America First is the right policy for spending their tax dollars
- the economy is about the same as it is now, maybe a little better. The Fed is spending billions to keep the dollar up
- a few Patriot Act provisions have been allowed to die, though most are still in place
- the deficit is so big its off the charts, but the numbers are not comprehensible, and many people feel OK because they have a few dollars extra in their pocket because of the tax cuts
- the Democratic nomination fight was bitter and ugly. Sectors of the party are still mad and are sitting on their hands refusing to support the winner.
If this describes October, 2004, then what will the democrats do? Does anyone have an actual plan?
The republicans will pull out all the stops to win the election -- they will run hard on 9/11, terrorism, tax cuts, Southern code words, Bush the charmer, and whisper campaigns -- and now they have Arnold, too.
If democrats believe that circumstances (the economy, an unpopular war, a revulsion for facism) will win it for them, they'll be left in the dust.
Its a popular democratic myth that Clinton won just because of the economy -- the republicans know better. Clinton won because he created a tidal wave of enthusiam and excitement which swept over the united states. Pappy Bush was tired and looked old and had raised taxes and didn't give a good speech. Clinton played the sax and went on talk shows and used Fleetwood Mac for a campaign song.
To win in 2004, the democrats will have to create a "clinton"-style tidal wave. Circumstances will not do it for them.