In the latest poll from Lee Newspapers in Montana, State Senator Jon Tester is tied in a statistical
dead heat
with State Auditor John Morrison for the democratic nomination for U.S. Senate, with nine days to go to the June Primary. But as the sage Yogi Berra has said, it ain't over til it's over.
Montana's lead political reporter, the respected Charles Johnson takes up the story:
Morrison received 42 percent to Tester's 41 percent of the likely Democratic primary voters, with 14 percent undecided, according to the poll that was taken May 22-2.
Johnson interviews Brad Coker for some analysis:
"The thing that strikes me is that Morrison is still better known than Tester, but Tester has a higher favorable rating with Democrats,'' said Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, which conducted the poll. "Tester may have a little more upward mobility. He's pretty well-positioned for the primary. I think it's a close race, but if Tester won, it wouldn't surprise me.
Both Tester and Morrison appear able to beat Burns:
In November general election match-ups, Morrison leads Burns slightly by a 48 to 41 percent, with 11 percent undecided. The general election poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.
Another general match-up shows Tester with 45 percent to Burns' 42 percent, and 13 percent undecided. Because Tester's 3-percentage point lead falls within the margin of error, the two candidates are deemed to be running about even.
"Burns is trailing both Tester and Morrison so that's a real sign of trouble,'' Coker said. "In the general election, when an incumbent is under 50 percent in the horserace, they're in trouble, and when they're trailing, they're in big trouble.''
Jon Tester still suffers from less name recognition (and a less well funded campaign) than John Morrison, but this latest poll shows that Tester has made up a lot of ground in the last three months, as Tester shows graphically on his website.
Tester has also lined up an impressive list of supporters including 60% of his colleagues in the Montana senate and former U.S. Senator John Melcher, whom Conrad Burns beat in 1988 to take the seat once held by the legendary Senate majority leader Mike Mansfield. In a bizarre twist, John Melcher donated $500 dollars to John Morrison's campaign last fall, but in the past month, has endorsed Tester whom he sees as having the better chance of beating Mr. Burns in November.
John Morrison has assembled a peculiar list of endorsements many from out of the state, including former U.S. Senators Tom Daschle (D-SD), Bob Kerrey (D-NE), Bill Bradley (D-NJ) as well as former congresswoman Pat Schroeder (D-CO).
From my talks with a couple of Montana political observers before the poll was released yesterday, the concern was that Morrison would still edge out a narrow victory to win the nomination on the strength of the Montana seniors vote, which is a very reliable democratic primary voting block. And then the observers believe Morrison would go one to lose the general election due to his taint of impropriety with the Tacke securities scandal.
Jon Tester still has the best favorability ratings from Montana voters, indicating as many of us think that he has the best chance of unseating a well funded incumbent in November.
If you can still donate some cash (even $10.01 and $20.01 bucks make a difference) please do so this weekend.
Go Tester!