Introduction: My purpose in writing these series of articles - covering all 50 states, with analysis of each statewide and Congressional race - is to provide the blogosphere (and its readers) with a virtual "Who's Who" of the 2006 elections. Think of it as a "Poor Man's Cook Political Report", with my analysis being as unbiased and reality-based as possible. Obviously, we still have six months to go in this cycle, leaving plenty of time for the tides to change; that is why I will update this analysis in a cycle. When Wyoming is done, we'll start again with Alabama, etc. I hope that you, the reader will learn something from every article, and judge me accordingly.
Today's article is for the states of Alabama and Alaska. Even if you're not from those states, I urge you to take a look and see if you might well want to follow some of these states until November. And again, you might learn something.
ALABAMA
Statewide Races:
*Governor - Bob Riley (Inc.R) or Roy Moore (R) vs. Winner of Democratic Primary
Governor Riley was narrowly elected (possibly because of shenanigans) over Democratic Governor Don Siegelman in 2002, vacating his Congressional seat to do so. His term in office has been a series of ups and downs, his lowest point occurring when he attempted to raise taxes on the wealthy to pay for public education revamping in 2003. The proposal (which would have cut taxes for the poor, according to Governing Magazine) was overwhelmingly rejected, led by a coalition of big business and Christian Conservative leaders, including then-Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore. Riley's approval ratings sunk to a record low.
Flash forward three years. Riley's approval rating has somewhat improved, and his party's base is largely supporting him in his primary battle with Moore, the "10 Commandments Judge" of recent infamy. A recent independent poll from the Birmingham News showed Riley ahead 64-20% over Moore; barring a Moore surge or unexpected misfortune for Riley, the Governor should win renomination.
The Democratic primary is more confused. Former Governor Siegelman is running once again, but has been indicted on charges going back to his term as Governor. The trial began in late April, with Siegelman accused of bribery and political corruption charges, and will not end until after the June 6th primary. He faces Lt. Governor Lucy Baxley, as well as five other Democrats on that date. Baxley, who previously served as State Treasurer has been running stronger in Rasmussen Reports polling than Siegelman, but currently trails him 47-39% in the Birmingham News poll. Rasmussen has Riley leading Baxley 47-40%, but leading Siegelman by much more: 55-38%. Moore trails Baxley, but leads Siegelman, in both cases by narrow margins.
This race will largely depend on who the Democrats select. If Siegelman holds on despite his corruption trial (it's hard to see him campaigning while being in court at the same time), Riley is almost a certain bet for reelection. If Baxley prevails, then the general election will be closer, although Riley would maintain the edge. Of course, if Moore somehow upsets Riley in the primary, then all bets are off.
My ranking: Leans Republican
Siegelman: http://www.siegelman2006.com/
Baxley: http://www.lucybaxley.com/
*Lt. Governor - Jim Folsom, Jr. (D) vs. Winner of Republican Primary
Democrats worried about losing Baxley's position were happy to see former Governor (and Lt. Governor) Jim Folsom, Jr. reenter politics after a 12-year hiatus and run for his old job. Folsom was elevated to the Governorship after Republican Guy Hunt was convicted on election violations, only to narrowly lose his new job in 1994 to another corrupt Republican, Fob James. Folsom was successful as Governor in bringing the Mercedes-Benz industry to Alabama, which gave Alabama an economic boom at the time. Folsom remains well-known in the state, and at 57 has plenty of more years of governing left in him.
The Republican primary is interesting as well, if only for the possibility that a Wallace - George Wallace, Jr. - may be the nominee against Folsom. The son of the ex-Governor and Presidential candidate, Wallace left the Democratic Party in the late 1990s following his terms as State Treasurer. Currently a Public Service Commissioner, he is facing a primary from three other Republicans. Luther Strange, a GOP activist and attorney is considered to be his top challenger.
No polling has been done on this race yet, but having the sons of two ex-Governors who fought against each other ("Big Jim" Folsom and Wallace) for the job should make it interesting. I won't make a prediction at this point, until the GOP primary resolves itself.
*Attorney General - Troy King (Inc.R) or Mark Montiel (R) vs. John Tyson, Jr. (D) or Larry Darby (D)
King was appointed as Attorney General after his predecessor, Bill Pryor was confirmed for the Federal bench in 2004. Without a statewide race under his belt, King faces a tough challenge against his likely Democratic opponent, Mobile County D.A. John Tyson, Jr. King also faces a primary challenge from Montiel, a former State Judge. In fact, King and Montiel will soon be in court against each other, as Montiel is leading a GOP effort to stop a community service grant project. King, as the State AG is required to defend the project, according to http://alapolitics.blogspot.com/ . Darby, an attorney is also the President of the Atheist Law Center, which is unlikely to win him many votes in November. In addition, Tyson is regarded as a rising star in Alabama politics, and has the backing of the state party. Regardless of whether King or Montiel wins the Republican primary, Tyson should be competitive.
My ranking: Tossup
Tyson: http://www.johntysonjr.com/
*Secretary of State - Nancy Worley (Inc.D) or Ed Packard (D) vs. Beth Chapman (R)
Worley, who was narrowly elected in 2002, has been under fire throughout her term for various gaffes, mini-scandals and infighting with local election officials. She faces Packard, a former State Elections administrator in the primary, and State Auditor Chapman in the general election. Chapman favors a Voter ID bill and is regarded as a GOP partisan, but it may not matter. At this point in time, she looks to be the frontrunner for the post, due to Worley's problems.
My ranking: Leans Republican (Pickup)
Packard: http://www.edpackard.us/ (No site for Worley)
*State Auditor - Winner of Republican Primary vs. Winner of Democratic Primary
Four Republicans are duking it out to replace Chapman, with none of them holding any special edge at this point, although Tripp Skipper has raised more money. The three Democrats running are unknowns who filed at the last minute, meaning that in all likelihood the GOP will hold this spot.
My ranking: Safe Republican
*State Treasurer - Kay Ivey (Inc.R) vs. Steve Segrest (D) or Keith Williams (D)
Ivey has been generally under the radar in her term as Treasurer, and faces two unknowns in her bid for another term. She will likely get it, too.
My ranking: Safe Republican
Congressional Races:
*AL-01 - Jo Bonner (Inc.R) vs. Vivian Beckerle (D)
Bonner was first elected in 2002 in an open-seat contest, and has held his seat with roughly 60% both times. Beckerle is a former Mobile County Treasurer, and left the GOP due to its far-right shift in recent years. While her resume is strong, Beckerle entered the race in mid-March, and is unlikely to raise the money needed to win this seat.
My ranking: Safe Republican
*AL-02 - Terry Everett (Inc.R) vs. Chuck James (D) or John Morykwas, Jr. (D)
Everett won with 71% in 2004 against James, who faces a primary with Morykwas, an Air Force veteran. Neither is likely to make a dent on Everett, who represents a heavily Republican district.
My ranking: Safe Republican
Morykwas: http://morykwasforuscongress.com/
*AL-03 - Mike Rogers (Inc.R) vs. Greg Pierce (D)
On paper, Rogers' district should be competitive; it voted for Gore in 2000, after all. But after narrowly winning in 2002, Rogers won with 61% in 2004, and has drawn an unknown opponent this time around. He should win again easily.
My ranking: Safe Republican
*AL-04 - Robert Aderholt (Inc.R) vs. Barbara Bobo (D)
Bobo, a newspaper publisher and former Mayor of Millport also filed at the last minute, and is unlikely to inflict a "Bo-Bo" on Aderholt, who won with 74% in 2004 against a credible opponent.
My ranking: Safe Republican
*AL-05 - Bud Cramer (Inc.D) Unopposed
*AL-06 - Spencer Bachus (Inc.R) Unopposed
*AL-07 - Artur Davis (Inc.D) or Eddison Walters (Unopposed)
Davis, an African-American will win renomination easily. He has plans to run for statewide office in the future, and resembles Harold Ford, Jr. in age, ideology and ability.
ALASKA
*Governor: Frank Murkowski (Inc.R) or Winner of Republican Primary vs. Ethan Berkowitz (D) or Eric Croft (D) vs. Andrew Halcro (Ind)
Murkowski, a US Senator from 1981-2003 was elected Governor in 2002, defeating Lt. Governor Fran Ulmer. Since that time, Murkowski has become one of America's least popular Governors, with Survey USA pegging him at a miserable 29-64% approval rating in April. Having broken a "Read My Lips - No New Taxes" pledge, as well as appointing his daughter, Lisa to succeed him in the Senate (she narrowly won election in 2004 on Bush's coattails), Murkowski has alienated much of his own party, not to mention Democrats and Independents. He faces a primary challenge from former Wasilla Mayor Sarah Palin, with the possibility of more challengers appearing in the near future. So far, Murkowski has not made public whether he will run for reelection; until he does, the Republican primary is up in the air.
The Democrats will choose between State House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz and State Representative Eric Croft. Berkowitz is considered to be the likely nominee, although nothing is certain at this point. There had been rumblings of former Governor and 2004 US Senate nominee Tony Knowles going for his old spot, but nothing has come of it yet. If he does, Knowles would be the 800-pound gorilla in the contest.
For now, the race depends on Murkowski. If he runs again, he'll face an upward climb for reelection, if not renomination. If he doesn't (and he likely won't), then the Republican primary will be fun to watch. In addition, Halcro (an ex-Republican) may play spoiler for the GOP if the race gets close enough. Either way, expect this race to be competitive all the way to November.
My ranking: Tossup
Berkowitz: http://www.ethanberkowitz.com/
Croft: http://ericcroft.com/
*AK-At Large - Don Young (Inc.R) vs. Frank Vondersaar (D)
Young, who has been in this seat since 1973 has faced Vondersaar on two different occasions - and solidly whipped him each time. Barring a scandal (and there have been wisps of that around Young regarding Jack Abramoff and Co.), the result will be the same this time.
My ranking: Safe Republican
The next article in this series will be on Arizona and Arkansas.