IMMIGRATION is going to be a huge hot-button issue this election year. Talk about an inconvenient truth! The party that gets this one right is going to win big. Neither party has the advantage on this issue coming out of the gate. Republicans are caught between their emotional message (we'll use a heavy hand to smite "the other", especially if they aren't white) and their main interest group, corporations and the rich, who like immigration because it depresses wages. Democrats are caught between their core ideology (we'll help the average guy, extend more rights to more people) and their main interest group, working people, who dislike immigration because it depresses wages.
Ultimately, the issue should be more painful for Republicans because there is a structural contradiction between gratifying their voter base, which wants to see harsh and exclusionary measures against immigrants, and serving their main interest group, which wants an endless supply of low-wage workers. However, in the election campaign, Republicans can still exploit the issue with a lot of shouting and posturing about how harsh they're going be. They would simply not deliver on the actual exclusion of immigrant labor after the election, and try to blame that result on the Democrats. In other words, the usual Republican game.
The Democratic position on immigration should be based on three points. 1) Increase minimum wage enough that American citizens will take jobs that now attract only illegal immigrants. 2) Increase enforcement and penalties on the employer side. 3) Put the blame where it belongs, on an international economic system that ships good American jobs overseas and restricts opportunities for the poor in countries like Mexico, all for the enrichment of a few CEOs and wealthy investors. We should also hammer Republicans for their cluelessness about family planning, which facilitates global over-population.
The Democratic plan should emphasize a "phasing in" of minimum wage increases and employer-side enforcement. This is crucial, because small employers need to see that they won't be crushed by the transition. Minimum wage increases can happen in annual increments over maybe a 4-year period. Employer penalties should phase in over the same period: first six months, new policies put in place and publicized, but not yet enforced; next 12 months, relatively light penalties and enforcement; next 2 ½ years, stiffer penalties and increasingly vigorous enforcement; after that, employers are in real trouble if they hire illegals, and they WILL be caught and prosecuted.
Democrats must also confront the perversities of the international economic system, uncomfortable though that might be. Treaties like NAFTA and CAFTA must have real protections for labor rights and the environment, and they really have to be enforced. If corporations can lower their costs by exploiting labor and trashing the environment in places like Mexico or Indonesia, they're going to do that. We have to take that option off the table. If the jobs created in those places are just a step above slavery, then foreign workers will flood the US no matter what laws we make. American workers need to understand that this is what sends our jobs overseas, and what drives foreign workers to the US.
So here's my script for Democrats: "Immigration is a real problem. We have a border, and we will patrol it. We have laws, and we will enforce them. But this is not a problem that can be solved just by hunting people down and deporting them, or building an iron curtain on the border. We have to address the causes of illegal immigration. We need a minimum wage that allows Americans to do the jobs that only immigrants will take now. We need employers to be accountable for hiring illegal immigrants. We need to fix trade policies that ship good American jobs overseas while exploiting foreign labor and trashing the global environment. We need to encourage family planning policies that address global over-population. We need to encourage social and economic policies that make life more livable in developing countries. Until we do those things, no amount of deportation and laws and fences on our side of the border will fix the immigration problem.
"Our plan for immigration is based on classic Democratic principles. Fairness and accountability at home. Responsible business practices. Constructive engagement with our international partners. Reality-based solutions that go to the root causes of problems.
"The Republicans? We can expect more of the usual from them. They set up conditions that are guaranteed to cause problems, then punish the poor folks who get caught in the trap. They don't care about regular people, in this country or any country. They'll make a lot of noise and get everyone all emotional and confused, but at the end of the day we'll see the same thing as always from them--the super-rich will be fatter than ever, and the rest of us will be living in the ruins."
Of course, for the Democrats to adopt this winning approach, they will have to decide who their core constituency really is. That's where the razor's edge comes in: attempts to straddle the fence on this issue will result in extremely uncomfortable wounds. DLC, is anyone listening over there?