Cross posted from MyDD
This is the first release form the BlogPac netroots survey
that you raised money for last week. The graph shows Hillary Clinton's favorable ratings according to frequency of blog readership among progressive netroots activists and compared to a recent Hotline poll of all Democrats:
This is what is known as a direct statistical correlation. The more frequently a netroots activist readers blogs, the less likely s/he is to have a favorable opinion of Hillary Clinton. While netroots activists who never read blogs have an opinion of Hillary Clinton roughly comparable to all Democrats, netroots activists who regularly read political blogs actually have an overall negative opinion of Hillary Clinton, at 45% favorable and 54% unfavorable.
Given these rather remarkable numbers, the $640,000,000 question is whether or not blog readers really are the influential, cutting edge of Democratic public opinion, or whether we are an isolated group that has little overall impact on the sentiment of the Democratic rank and file. Considering results from the recent
Iowa poll, the recent
Connecticut poll, and the Montana Senatorial primary (among other things), I am strongly inclined to believe that the opinions held by progressive, political blog readers eventually come to be shared by a wide percentage of the Democratic rank and file. If that is the case, given these results, the question is not whether or not Hillary Clinton is the heavy favorite for the Democratic nomination in 2008, but whether or not she will have any serious impact on the primary season at all.
With just under 2,000 email responses from members of MoveOn,org, the margin of error on the total sample of this poll is only 2.2%. Obviously the margin of error on the sub groups is higher than that.
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