We all know about the various pick-up opportunities the Democrats have in congressional and gubernatorial races all around the country in the current political mood. They are on everybody's mind. In case of a Democratic wave Deomcrats should also make some progress on important state legislative races, that mostly fly under the radar. So I decided to take a look at some states and their competitive legislative races. With little information available I figured out some important factors:
* the election results from the last general election
* performance Bush/Kerry from 2004 (if available)
* the results from the prospective primaries, if they have already taken place
* fundraising information
Last time I checked the races for Ohio states senate here. Another state of great statewide opportunities seems to be PA, with the ticket being led by Gov. Rendell (against untested Lynn Swann) and Sen. candidate Bob Casey Jr. (against very unpopular Santorum). So I decided to next examine the races for the Pennsylvania state senate:
Pennsylvania has 50 senate seats, currently occupied by 29 Republicans and 21 Democrats, so it would take a 4-seat-swing for a 25/25-split (the Lt. Gov. casting at least some tie-breaking votes) and a 5-seat-swing for an outright Democratic majority. That would be difficult enough, but it's even worse as in every election only half of the senate seats are up for reelection for a 4-year-term. In 2006 the even-numbered senate seats are up, 16 Republicans and 9 Democrats.
I consider the following somewhat competitive:
10th district:
The 10th district is an open seat, as Sen. Conti (R) is retiring. The Republican Candidate is St. Rep. Chuck McIlhinney, who represents the 143rd district in the Pennsylvania House. His democratic opponent is fmr. prosecutor and lawyer Chris Serpico. Sen. Conti got 61,5%/38,5% in the election 2002, but it seemed more competitive in the 2006 primary. Rep. McIlhinney got 5.981 votes, his opponent 3.112 votes. Chris Serpico got 5.733 votes and his primary opponent received 4.339 votes, so there were more votes cast in the Democratic primary.
I don't have data that breaks down the results from the 2004 Presidential election to state senate districts so I can only tell you that the 10th SD contains of the northern part of Bucks County, which went 51,1%/48,3% for Kerry. Furthermore, it also belongs to the 8th CD of freshman Rep. Fitzpatrick (R) who should be in a tough reelection fight against Iraq war veteran Patrick Murphy (D). With Gov. Rendell heading the Democratic ticket and turning out the vote in the Philadelphia suburbs, it should help Serpico.
Moneywise, it doesn't sound encouraging, Rep. McIlhinney has 23.376,67 $ CoH, Serpico's campaign owes 29.181,90 $.
16th district:
The race in the 16th district isn't open, but the incumbant isn't that well entrenched. Sen. Pat Browne got into office through a special election in 2005 after his predecessor Charlie Dent won the open 15th CD of Rep. Toomey, who ran against Arlen Spector for the US Senate. Charlie Dent won his reelection in 2002 with 65,1% of the vote, Sen. Browne won the special election with 52,8%/44,3%. His Democratic opponent will be lawyer Richard Orloski who self-financed a congressional run in 2004 (also in the 15th CD). Sen. Browne got 8.497 votes in the primary, Richard Orloski 6.237 votes, but Orloski had a primary opponent who drew 3.052.
The 16th SD belongs to the 11th CD of Rep. Kanjorski (D) and to the 15th CD of Rep. Dent (R). Neither race will be competitive in November. The district is split between Lehigh, Monroe and Northampton counties, which were all very close in 2004. Kerry carried Lehigh (51,0%/48,2%) and Northampton (50,1%/49,0%) counties while Monroe county was actually split with Bush receiving 4 votes more than Kerry.
Sen. Browne has 7.671,10 $ CoH, Orloski has 1.230 $.
6th district:
The incumbant in the 6th district is Sen. Robert Tomlinson, who won his senate seat in 2002 with 52,6%/47,4%. His opponent in 2006 will be veteran Paul Lang, who has been endorsed by Sen. Max Cleland. Sen. Tomlinson got 8.188 votes in the primary, Paul Lang got 7.851 votes.
The 6th SD contains of the southern half of Bucks county, splitting it with the already describes 10th SD. It is also part of the competitive 8th CD.
Moneywise, it's even more depressing with Sen. Tomlinson having 128.013,99 $ CoH and Paul Lang having 2.390,58 $.
24th district:
Probably less chances of a pick-up seems to have the 24th district of Sen. Wonderling (R). He won in 2002 with 55,1%/44,9% and got 8.023 votes in the primary. His opponent in November will be David Wilsey, who received 5.165 votes in the primary.
The 24th SD contains of parts of Bucks, Lehigh and Montgomery counties, last of which went for Kerry with 55,6%/44,0%. The district is split between the 6th, 8th, 13th and 15th CD. The 13th CD is represented by fresh(wo)man Rep. Schwartz (D), while the 6th CD is held by Rep. Gerlach (R), who of course is in a top-tier-race against Lois Murphy (D).
If you thought, the cash disadvantage cannot get any worse, look at the 202.301,36 $ CoH of Sen. Tomlinson, I don't have any numbers for David Wilsey.
50th district:
The last one on my list doesn't seem too competitive at all. Sen. Robbins won in 2002 with 65,1%/34,9%. The only reason I list this race is the primary result where he got 12.216 votes while the Democratic opponent, Art Allen, got 6.541 vote with 6.473 votes for his opponent. So there were more votes cast for Democrats than for the Republican, but they had a competitive primary, so that's probably it.
The 50th district contains of Crawford and Mercer counties as well as the eastern part of Lawrence county in NE PA, the only race outside the Philadelphia suburbs. The district belongs to the 3rd CD of Rep. English (R). Bush carried all the counties moderately, winning Crawford County with 57,3%/41,8%, Mercer county with 51,0%/48,2% and Lawrence county with 50,5%/49,2%. Rep. English doesn't have a serious challenge on his hands, so is the senate race of Bob Casey really enough to push Sen. Robbins out. I highly doubt it.
Sen. Robbins has 127.453,98 $ CoH, Art Allen has 3.054,04 $.
It seems to me that it is highly unlikely that Democrats can win over control of the Pennsylvania state senate, even with a very strong statewide ticket. We should be lucky to win 1-3 Republican-held seats.
You can find some maps of the districts I was talking about here.