Hi, everyone. As you know, my Dad is
Jack Carter, who's running for US Senate in Nevada. We've got two days before the end of the fundraising period, and we really want to show some good numbers by then, so please
give now if you can.
You may have seen my fundraising pitch last week or the diary from my grandpa, Jimmy Carter, a couple of days ago. I really hope you aren't sick of Carters just yet. This time around, I thought I'd give you some good motivation for why you should believe in Jack Carter and dig as deep as you can.
I'm going to convince you that it will be a very good investment for you if you "Bet on Jack." I really think that we're going to win this thing. Here are our most recent poll numbers:
MOE 4.1%
Ensign (R): 50.5%
Carter (D): 36%
That 14.5% is not insurmountable. And Ensign, as the incumbent, should have higher numbers than that. Ensign's troubles are well-established. His approval rating, according to SUSA, has been hovering around
50% for months.
More revealing to us is the trend of the head-to-head polling. As I wrote over at the Carter Blog, "We're moving up!"
The newest polling in the Carter/Ensign Senate race is out from the Wall Street Journal and it shows that we are moving up compared to previous polling:
John Ensign (R): 50.5 %
Jack Carter (D): 36 %
(Ensign up by just 14.5)
Research 2000 from May:
Ensign: 52
Carter: 32
(Ensign up by 20)
Mason-Dixon from April:
Ensign: 60
Carter: 27
(Ensign up by 33)
We're especially pleased with the movement in the polls considering that we haven't run any TV ads yet. As the Kyl-Pederson race in Arizona has shown,
TV ads move polls. Our ads are currently in the works. My Dad was shooting footage for some ads just this week, and we should have some ready to go within another week or so.
Any money you can give us now will help us get on the air and move our numbers. So, please,
give whatever you can!
I mentioned above that Ensign's approval ratings are mediocre. But his problems don't end there. He has a Bush problem. Since he was elected as a Senator in 2000, he has voted with the Bush Administration 96% of the time, including 100% of the time in 2004. The problem for him is that Nevada doesn't like Bush. According to the latest SUSA poll, Bush's approval rating in Nevada is 34%. That's the lowest number of any state that voted for him in 2004 (yes, including Ohio). Not surprisingly, other recent polling has shown that Nevadans prefer Democrats to Republicans in Congressional races.
Our anecdotal evidence supports the idea that Republicans' support for Ensign is not very strong. A friend of ours named Art Lynch is running for Assembly in District 20, and he wrote me this email:
In my limited start at a campaign (no funding) for Assembly (2/3rd Republican district), I have found a better than 50% interest in support and votes for Jack. Many of these are Republican, so it is not known how they will vote when they cast their vote, but they are interested in Jack Carter and not entirely sold on Ensign. He is not a shoe in, even within his own party. Voters are open, and there is a strong lack of support that could lead to defections to Democrats or Republicans staying home (as referenced and observed by others). Amazing how positive the response has been given the chemistry of areas I have gone wearing the campaign button or talking up my own campaign.
-Art
As I said, I really believe that we are going to win this thing. I think we're going to come out a lot stronger than anyone anticipated and that Ensign will be caught unawares. Our rural strategy will pay off. We're going to ramp up our momentum in July and August, and be considered a "surprise top-tier race" by September or October. In the home stretch, our cultivated strength in word of mouth marketing will surprise the Republicans. We need your help to make it all happen.
Thanks so much for your support! And thanks for reading!
Sarah
You can always find more at the Carter Blog