Two polls are now available on the primary race (such as it is), fully post-WI:
Rasmussen tracker 2/18-20
Kerry 51
Edwards 25
Sharpton 4
Kucinich 2
"Other" 3
Undecided 15
Fox 2/18-19
Kerry 58
Edwards 21
"Other" 2
Undecided / won't vote 19
Fox rather tackily has removed both Sharpton and Kucinich from their name rotation. (Fox, tacky? Who'd of thunk it?) Neither one of these polls is the greatest, but they're what we have to go by, and the Rasmussen tracker does indicate trends.
Kerry had fallen to 43 in the Rasmussen right at the time of the WI primary, but has bounced back over 50, while Edwards is stalled at 25. It's odd in a way that Kerry seemingly got the mo even though Edwards made it much closer than expected. Two possibilities:
- The Drudge story gave Kerry a temporary downdraft, which ended when the story faded to nothing.
- WI had been played up as "last chance to stop Kerry" - so when he won, even by single digits, he got the mo.
A
requiscat in pace note. In the Rasmussen rolling average, support for "Other" has fallen from 9 to 6 to 3 over the last three days, as pre-WI days fell off and post-WI days were put in. "Undecided" has gone from 11 to 15.
This is the wandering-away of Dean supporters. Contrary to sentiment on DKos, they seem to be going to undecided or Kerry, with no real sign of movement towards Edwards.
Finally, let's test the implications of Nader here on DKos (assuming Kerry is the Dem nominee):
-- Rick Robinson