The Cook Political Report released its new House rankings today. Four Republican seats have been moved from Lean Republican to Tossup: CT-4, FL-22, IL-6, and NC-11.
http://www.cookpolitical.com/
Additionally, the one Democratic tossup seat from June 7, OH-6 (Ted Strickland's old seat) has been moved to Lean Democratic. There are currently 21 Democratic seats in the Likely and Lean Democratic categories, and a whopping 53 Republican seats on Cook's radar.
http://www.cookpolitical.com/...
There's more below the flap, including the Senate analysis.
CT-4 is an obvious case where the Iraq War has dragged Christopher Shays into the toughest fight of his political career. Diane Farrell took 47.6% of the vote in a much more favorable political environment for the Republicans. Now, with at least 60% of Connecticut residents in staunch opposition to the Iraq War, Farrell looks like an even money bet at the worst to win the seat.
Tammy Duckworth must have more traction than many people realize. She's been running neck and neck with Pete Roskam in IL-6, in Chicago's western suburbs. With the 2nd quarter FEC results looming, Duckworth probably performed very well on the fundraising trail. This one's a nailbiter in a slightly R-leaning district and even though we're not enamored with a lot of Rahm Emanuel's decisionmaking, this is very close to his turf.
Longtime incumbent Clay Shaw and his opponent, Ron Klein, each raised well over a million dollars at a very early stage. This looks to be the most expensive race in the country, and Klein can use the Medicare Part D program as a sledgehammer against Shaw in a Dem leaning, senior citizen heavy district.
Charles Taylor should be in better shape than this. He's in a district with an R+7 PVI with a huge warchest. Yet he's never been hugely popular in Western NC, and Heath Shuler's got money, name recognition from his days as a great Tennessee quarterback, and Taylor's pro-CAFTA vote all in his favor.
One Democratic Senate seat has moved from likely Dem to Solid Dem (Bill Nelson, FL). Another seat also moved more favorably into the Democratic column (Bernie Sanders-I), from lean-Dem to likely Dem. Expect that seat to also turn safe before too long.
Cook still rates six Republican seats as tossups (PA, MT, OH, MO, RI, TN). PA is likely Dem, and TN is a lean Republican until I see a poll with Ford ahead. Cook is conservative when rating MT as a tossup; I'd guess Tester is about five points ahead.
Strangely enough, he moves Kyl from Likely Republican to Lean Republican and not Allen. I would reverse these; Webb looks to be much stronger than Pederson as a candidate. Perhaps Kyl is a lot less popular than anyone is letting on. Every poll I've seen out of AZ has a tremendous number of undecided voters.
This is an open thread for any House or Senate race.