The Texas redistricting decision clears the way for us to redistict if we can get control of the legislature and the Governor's mansion. In Minnesota, this is easily within reach, as we already control the State Senate and all signs (ie recent special elections) point to us retaking the State House. The Governor's race between Democratic AG Mike Hatch and Republican incumbent Tim Pawlenty is a tossup.
I chose Minnesota for three reasons. The first is that I know the state's geographic/demographic patterns decently well. The second is that there is a known Democratic redistricting map already on the table that is easily accessible, and the third is that MN's dynamics make it reasonably likely that Dems could take control of all three branches and change the map in 2006.
The state's
current map was drawn in 2002 by a panel of three judges when Jesse Ventura, the DFL State Senate and the GOP State House deadlocked. The current was considered to be a slightly GOP favorable map and shifted the balance of power from 5-3 in favor of Democrats to a 4-4 tie.
Under the current map:
Solid DFL(3): MN-4(DFL),MN-5(DFL), and MN-8 (DFL)
Leans DFL(0): None
Tossups: MN-7 (DFL)
Leans GOP(2): MN-1(GOP), MN-3 (GOP)
Solid GOP(2): MN-2(GOP), MN-6(GOP)
However, the Democratic proposed map shifts power in favor of us in several districts and leaves the GOP vulnerable in all save one district.
Here's what OUR map's effects would be.
MN-1: More DFL friendly than the current map. Its roughly the same district that sent conservative DFLer Tim Penny to Congress. This version of MN-1 loses the Republican Southwest portion of the state, while avoiding taking in heavily Republican Scott County and avoids most of Dakota, taking in only a small sliver in the county's south. The district is centered on Rochester, which has been trending Dem over the past two cycles. Tim Walz would give Gil Gutknecht the run of his life in this district. Prediction: Tossup, Ever So Slightly Lean GOP
MN-2: This district is a GOP slam dunk. In this configuration, the 2nd has Wright, Carver, and Scott Counties. These are the exurban doughnut counties where bush racked up his margins in 2000 and 2004. In addition, this 2nd would also take in the GOP friendly counties that are currently in the 1st and 7th districts.
Prediction: Solid, Safe GOP
MN-3: In this map, the 3rd is an analgamation of western Hennepin County (the more GOP portion, although it has been drifting slowly to the DFL) and most of Dakota County, which Bush only won it 50.5-48.5. On the balance, my guess is its probably about a 51-53% GOP district that was almost certainly designed specifically with moderate GOPer Jim Ramstead in mind. Its probably also designed to be enough Dem friendly that if Ramstead were to retire it would not be a stretch for a DFLer to prevail.
Prediction: Leans Slightly GOP, Likely GOP for Ramstead
MN-4: Basically St. Paul and its inner ring suburbs plus portions of Dakota County. Not as Dem as the 5th, but still a slam dunk.
Prediction: Safe, Solid DFL
MN-5: Minneapolis and some of its inner ring suburbs. Most DFL district in the state under this map.
Prediction: Safe DFL, No if, ands or buts.
MN-6: By far the 6th is the most interesting district in this map. In this version, the 6th loses a lot of the GOP areas that make it a strong GOP district in the current map. Wright goes to the 2nd, while Sherburne is split between the 7th and 8th. This 6th is all of Anoka (Bush win 53-46) and Washington (Bush win 51-48) Counties. However, it also contains what looks to be a heavy DFL Hennepin County component which probably swings it to something like a 51-53% DFL district.This district designed to elect then DFL Congressman Bill Luther, who was forced into an unappetizing choice of running in a 57% GOP 6th or a 55% GOP 2nd. He ran in the 2nd an lost. Michele Bachmann, the current MN-6 GOP candidate (think of a clone of Marlyn Musgrove with a Minnesota accent) would get slaughtered by 10 points in this version of the 6th.
Prediction: Leans Slightly DFL
MN-7: The 7th looks slightly more Dem friendly than it is in the current map. The 7th sheds some of the Republican counties in southwest MN, but picks up half of exurban Shelburne and exurban Stearns. An easy hold for conservative DFLer Colin Peterson, its a district that will send DFLers to Congress, albeit conservative, populist ones. This, and to a lesser extent the 8th, are both districts where the national party runs behind the local DFL. Still, a tough hold if an open seat.
Prediction: Tossup, Leans Conservative DFL
MN-8: Northeastern MN and Duluth have always been DFL strongholds.
Prediction: Solid DFL
DFL Friendly Map (with current incumbent party in parenthesis)
Solid DFL(3): MN-4(DFL),MN-5(DFL), and MN-8 (DFL)
Leans DFL (1): MN-6 (GOP)
Tossups(2): MN-1(GOP), MN-7 (DFL)
Leans GOP(1): MN-3 (GOP)
Solid GOP(1): MN-2 (GOP)
Current Map
Solid DFL(3): MN-4(DFL),MN-5(DFL), and MN-8 (DFL)
Leans DFL(0): None
Tossups: MN-7 (DFL)
Leans GOP(2): MN-1(GOP), MN-3 (GOP)
Solid GOP(2)*: MN-2(GOP), MN-6(GOP)
*If anyone reasonably sane was running on the GOP side MN-6 is a slam dunk. Nut/Wind/Gas-bag Michele Bachmann makes it a pure tossup however.
So as you can see, we would go to 4 solid or lean DFL districts, 2 tossups, 1 Lean GOP, and only 1 solid GOP district. Conceivably, it is possible, but not likely that Dems could capture 7 of the state's 8 seats. Under the current plan, the best we could hope for (long term) is a 5-3 split probably, and if everything went right a 6-2 split.