A lot of talk has been occuring about the number of congressional seats that are truly competitive, how effective gerrymandering will be, and whether the Democrats have a chance at taking the US House of Representative in the 2006 elections. The answer is that we do have a chance at taking the House but it may not be a great one. That is because there are currently only about 22 races that I would consider "Most Competitive" (or first-tier) which, while it heavily favors us (currently only Iowa 3, Texas 17, and Illionis 8 are the only Dem held seats on the list) but still requires us to run the field on the rest. On the plus side there are a high numer of "Second Most Competitive" seats that are working towards being in play. Currently, out of 435 US House seats about 62 are either competitive or have the potential to be competitive. So the list as it currently stands is:
Competitiveness Ranking of U.S. House seat races for 2006
Most Competitive (22 seats)
Iowa 1 (open)
Colorado 7 (open)
Arizona 8 (open)
Indiana 8
Indiana 9 (first term)
Washington 8 (first term)
Pennsylvania 6
Pennsylvania 7
Pennsylvania 8 (first term)
Pennsylvania 10
Ohio 18
Florida 22
Minnesota 6 (open)
Kentucky 4 (first term)
Texas 22
Connecticut 2
Connecticut 4
North Carolina 11
New Mexico 1
Illinois 8 (Dem Held - first term)
Iowa 3 (Dem Held)
Texas 17 (Dem Held - redistricting 2004)
Second Most Competitive (23 seats)
Pennsylvania 4
Connecticut 5
Arizona 5
Colorado 4
Kentucky 3
Illinois 6 (open)
Indiana 2
Ohio 1
Ohio 12
Ohio 15
Virginia 2
Virginia 10
Virginia 11
New Hampshire 2
New York 19
New York 20
New York 24 (open)
New York 29 (first term)
Nevada 2 (open)
Nevada 3
Wisconsin 8 (open)
Minnesota 1
Ohio 6 (Dem held - open)
Louisiana 3 (Dem Held - first term)
Vermont AL (Dem Held - open)
Georgia 8 (Dem Held - redistricting)
Potentially Competitive (19 seats)
Indiana 3
Michigan 8
Michigan 9
Michigan 11
Minnesota 2
Nebraska 1 (first term)
Nebraska 3 (open)
New Jersey 5
New Jersey 7
North Carolina 8
Ohio 2 (first term)
Ohio 14
Arizona 1
Montana AL
Florida 8
Florida 9 (open)
Florida 13 (open)
Florida 16
Kentucky 2
West Virginia 2
Colorado 3 (Dem Held - first term)
Regarding some of the seats that may have flown under the radar: Virginia 10 is notable as Judy Feder has had good fundraising over a relatively short period of time (I believe it's something like $500,000 over the first 2 quarters of 2006, almost all of it from individual contributions) which is really good considering this race has not been talked about as being competitive.
Indiana 3 has Dr. Tom Hayhurst outraising Matt Souder and doing the sort of different things needed to win in a one sided district (like having volunteers shovel the snow for elderly district residents, which he did in Jan. and Feb.).
Florida 8 features two Democratic candidates who have had good campaign funding in marketing consultant Charlie Stuart (good fundraising) and attorney Alan Grayson (government watchdog who has self-funded about $250,000). Any thoughts on the various races listed are both encouraged and welcome.