I've hesitated to post anything about what's going on in the Middle East because it took me awhile to come to any opinion. I still don't know that I have an opinion. That's why I'm posting this. Although, I'll warn you, I am leaning in one direction in answering my question.
One important thing we have to do when any nation makes a claim is decide if what they are doing actually fits that claim. By this, I think I mean, is it actually working?
Certainly any nation has a right to defend itself. This is inherent in the idea of nationhood. It is particularly important in the case of Israel, as they have been in a constant state of war since they became a nation. However you may feel about the circumstances of the creation of the nation of Israel, it's important that we accept that they are a sovereign nation, with all of the rights that that entails.
But are the Israelis actually defending themselves?
It strikes me that in the short term the bombing raids on Hezbollah targets certainly have some merit in those terms. Attacking the people that are atacking you certainly qualifies as self-defense.
But it's very hard for me to consider attacks on civilian targets as being self-defense. Is attacking Hezbollah's infrastructure doing anything to protect the Israelis from further attacks? Or does it just breed more hatred? Shock and Awe doesn't seem to have been a very effective technique in Iraq. How is it likely to be any different in Lebanon?
Sun Tzu claimed that these sorts of tactics do little to promote a winning strategy. I tend to agree.
It seems that Israel is attempting to utterly destroy the presence of Hezbollah in Lebanon. This seems to be their long term goal. Thus it's claimed to be self-defense. Is this even possible. Certainly those that favor this plan seem to think that Iran and Syria will continue to support Hezbollah. In that case, it seems inevitably there must be some sort of attack and subduing of Iran and Syria for any of this to work.
And even then, can you really subdue an organization like Hezbollah militarily? It seems they are just as likely to gain more recruits.
Is drawing other powers into an all-out war in the Middle East likely to be a successful strategy of self-defense?
This is one hell of a supposition.
With Juan Cole's latest revelations, it seems that there certainly are some longterm goals being served by this latest increase in hostilities. In that case, self-defense seems to be taking on a very interesting new meaning.
I have to wonder if it will actually look like self-defense in 5 years time.
phat