in his reelection bid. I got this from an astute student of South Carolina politics, who points out that national politics are playing a huge role in this battle:
Jake Knotts is a good ol' boy. South Carolina is still a bastion of Good Ol' Boy politics and he and the boys, well, they hate Mark Sanford. Sanford with a republican dominated legislature has not been able to get anything done. Repeatedly he has used the legislature as his whipping boy--even bringing pigs into the State House to demonstrate the level of "pork" that was in the budget. The pigs got loose and shat all over the place. Even in a place where ignorance reigns supreme, pigs shitting on the carpet is taken as an affront on the civilities that South Carolinians hold so dear. They hate him and Sanford has been to stubborn in playing ball with their pet projects. He always seems to have his head in the clouds looking to run for President. Seriously one of the nation's worst governors and he has presidential ambitions.
Then last week, Jenny Sanford, the Governor's wife came out in support of Mike Campbell a challenger to the incumbent Lt. Governor, Andre Bauer. Now Bauer is nothing special. He drives too fast and can be seen regularly in the bars down in Five Points or hanging out with a young co-eds down in Charleston. And he is a moron. But so is Jenny Sanford. People are comparing her to Hillary Clinton, and in South Carolina--that is not a compliment. Her coming out in favor of Campbell is said to have pushed Bauer over the top and back into the Lt. Governor's office. Let's just say that if they didn't like Bauer, the voters were able to hold their nose long enough to vote for him just to piss off Jenny Sanford (FYI--she has a temper too).
Then there are the consultants lining that have made their name down there: Rick Quinn, Rod Shealy, and Warren Thompkins. This is a bit incestuous trying to explain the relationships down there but I'll try. Rick Quinn is McCain's man in South Carolina. Lately, he has been getting his ass kicked. He was the majority leader in the State House and lost a primary election in 2004. In 2006, he tried to get back in the game with a run for State Treasurer and finished third behind Thomas Ravenel (who we will come back to in a minute). Rod Shealy is the darling right now--he is running Thomas Ravenel's show and has been adept and cutting Quinn to pieces whenever he gets a chance. The prince of darkness himself is Warren Thompkins though--he was David Wilkins' man, the former House leader, Bush friend, and current Ambassador to Canada. Wilkins hates Sanford. Hates him. Can barely say his name. Wilkins and Warren Thompkins ran South Carolina for Bush--of course there were the Washington heavy weights that came down for that too- Tom Ridge, Grover, and our boy Ralph.
So Wilkins might be north of the border, but he still has some swat down there. Thompkins has been on the phone since spring of 2005 trying to get someone, anyone to take Sanford on. Here comes our fat redneck Jake Knotts.
Knotts is from the most republican county in the entire state-Lexington. They love him there. You can't go to a BBQ joint and not find him there. Sanford is from the Low Country, is a blue blood, and has a farm ie lives on an old plantation. The folks from the Midlands and the Upstate (Greenville-Spartanburg) don't like the way the Blue Bloods act. The folks down there are fiscal conservatives but don't have the Bob Jones credentials--drinking and gambling and such. So there is a riff there already.
Let's go back to the national implications--Sanford supported McCain in 2000 along with Lindsey Graham. That pissed off Wilkins and Thompkins big time. They think that he'll do it again in 2008 which worries them.In fact, Chris Allen, a former personal aide to Gov. Mark Sanford, has signed on to work as a full-time field director for Sen. John McCain's Straight Talk America. If they can take him out of contention now then they get to pick who the 2008 nominee will be. Currently, as I have mentioned before, Sanford's campaign manager is George Allen's man Jason Miller. The Good Ol' Boys like Allen and he did wonders for DeMint in 2004.
The Good Ol' Boys aren't too happy with Lindsey Graham either. Ravenel, the current candidate for State Treasurer wants to take him out in 2008. Unf, he'll probably win the treasurer's race this year and do just that.
So if Knotts is really going to do this, this is what happens: Sanford will probably go down. Lindsey Graham will be a marked man in 2008. McCain will take the brunt of this on the chin and it will be a 2000 Redux for him. He can't get through South Carolina.
Knotts and Wilkins will be the kingmaker heading into 2008, where they will be doling out favors to a compliant State legislature, being toasted by the 08 GOP crowd, and have full control of the state apparatus. The Good Ol' Boys will be back on top.