One set of races that has received less attention here are those for state legislatures.
They may individually seem insignificant, but they matter. State politics ultimately impacts people's daily lives more than federal politics does: it is there that more taxes are spent, more laws passed, more services provided.
For federal politics junkies, it is state legislatures that administer federal elections and gerrymander future Congresses. It is from state legislatures that tomorrow's congressmen, senators, and governors are drawn.
So what are the prospects in state capitols this cycle?
2002 was a bad year for state Democrats, and no one needs reminding of the disaster of 1994. Democrats control only 23 state assemblies and 21 state senates. Oregon's state senate is tied, and Nebraska has a unicameral, nonpartisan legislature, giving Repubs 26 assemblies and 27 senates.
Gerrymandering is, of course, as great a problem at the state level as it is in the federal House. Typically only 10-20 percent of a house's seats are likely to change parties. Therefore, I've listed a house as "safe" if the majority party has more than 55 percent of the seats, and all or part of the seats are being contested this year. (Data from the National Conference of State Legislatures.)
All seat listings are D first, R second, Ind third. All seats are contested unless otherwise indicated. From safest to least safe, here are the categories of states:
1) Both houses Democratic, and no elections this cycle:
AL, MD, MS, NJ.
2) Both houses safely Democratic:
AR, CA, CT, HI, LA, MA, NM, RI, WV
3) Both houses Democratic, but one vulnerable:
IL Senate 32-26-1 (22 seats up)
OK Assembly 53-48
4) Both Democratic, and both vulnerable:
ME Assembly 80-67-1
ME Senate 18-17
TN Assembly 54-45
TN Senate 18-15 (16 seats up)
5) Split, but the Rep house is vulnerable:
GA Senate 26-30
NC Assembly 59-61
OR Senate 15-15 (15 seats up)
VT Assembly 69-74-7
6) Split, both vulnerable:
WA Assembly 52-46
WA Senate 24-25 (25 seats up)
7) Split, both safe:
DE (R-Assembly, D-Senate)
KY (D-Assembly, R-Senate)
MN (R-Assembly, D-Senate)
NY (D-Assembly, R-Senate)
8) Nonpartisan:
NE
9) Split, Dem house vulnerable:
IN Assembly 51-49
NV Assembly 23-19
10) Both Rep, but one vulnerable:
CO Senate 17-18 (18 seats up)
IA Assembly 46-54
MO Assembly 73-90
MT Assembly 47-53
PA Assembly 94-109
SC Senate 21-25
WI Senate 15-18 (16 seats up)
11) Both safe Rep:
AK, AZ, FL, ID, KS, MI, ND, NH, OH, SD, TX, UT, WY
12) Both Rep, not competing:
VA
So from our current 44 houses we could go from anywhere from 35 to 56. Small amounts of money can go a long way in state races, so don't forget your locals when opening your political wallets.
Please use this thread to give details about states you're more familiar with. See also this AP story.