A choke point is a narrowing of an international waterway to a distance of less than 24 miles (38 km), necessitating the drawing of a median line (maritime) boundary. These are almost always strategic locations where, presumably, a blockading naval force could "choke" off the waterway. Examples are the Hormuz Strait between Oman and Iran at the entrance to the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Malacca between Malaysia and Indonesia, the Bab-el-Mandeb...
Wikipedia Entry
(Cross posted to Ruins of Empire)
May 1st, 2007, Basra, Iraq. 3:45 a.m. local time
A series of explosions rips through the pre-morning calm. Among the targets was a British military base, home to the Blue and Royals regiment of the Royal Household Calvary. Over one hundred persons die in the dawn attack on the city, including five British soldiers. As rescuers and local police comb through the ruble they find the body of a young man, age 20, with an Iranian ID in his back pocket. Within days Anglo-American intelligence services identify the body as belonging to an officer of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards. British and American forces through out the Gulf are put on high alert....
Washington D.C. a few minutes latter.
It had been a long winter for the Bush administration. The Republicans lost the House in last November's mid-term election and as predicted the Democrats wasted no time in inundating the White House with one subpoena after another. Two high profile cases swept the news coverage week after week. The former chief of staff for Vice President Richard Bruce Cheney, one I. Lewis Libby trial spun out of control after the defense settled on a strategy of blaming everybody but Libby for the Plame Affair. Down in Texas, former House member Tom Delay faced a very public trial that became a showcase of the corruption that swept the Congress in the last 12 years. Among the clutter of cable news breaking news announcements and celebrity stories, a news article by Sy Hersh, warning of an imminent attack on Iranian nuclear capabilities went unnoticed. That all changes when news of the attack reached the White House....
So what would a war with Iran look like?
(Cross posted to Ruins of Empire)
For starters, the Iranian capability to close the Persian Gulf is very real. As the recent fighting in Lebanon has shown, even "militias" can deploy mobile missile launchers in large numbers against land based and naval targets. The effective targeting of an Israeli warship does not bode well for the U.S. Navy in the restricted waters of the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranians have several weapon systems which they could use to close the Gulf and inflict severe economic hardship on the U.S.
Cruise Missiles:
The Iranians posses two types of anti-ship cruise missiles, the Silkworm and the C-802. It was the latter type that struck the INS Hanit of the coast of Lebanon. The latter type profile and capabilities are similar to the Exocetand Harpoon family of sea skimming missiles. Iran has over sixty mobile launchers, most of them stationed on Qeshm (Qushm) Island:
Both missile systems can be fired from mobile launchers against ships and possibly against land targets. This makes all manner of targets vulnerable to missile attack, including oil tankers, offshore drilling facilities, ports, airfields and desalination plants along the western shore of the Gulf.
Oil Facility
Water Desalination Plant
The biggest obstacle to attacking fast moving, well defended warships would be getting targeting information. Radar is the best means to detect and quide such missiles. That requires radiating at specefic frequencies; frequencies that can be detected and tracked back to its source. But in such restricted waters, U.S. ships can not afford to do full EMCON (emissions control, shut down of radars and radios), thus providing effective targeting data for the missile batteries without having to turn on their own radar sets. If these missiles are fired en masse (three to five missiles per target) it will be very difficult to intercept all of them. So far, missile armed ships have fair poorly against advanced anti-ship missiles. A single hit against an American frigate or destroyer could cause anywhere between 125-315 casualties, with multiple hits would sink all but the largest U.S. warships. A successful attack would effectively drive the U.S. Navy out of the Gulf and choke the life out of the world's oil markets.
Aircraft:
The combination of the Iran-Iraq war and a prolonged U.S. led embargo have crippled the Iranian Air Force. However, the Iranians have managed to rebuild some of its capabilities with Russian and Chinese help (plus a large contingent of Iraqi aircraft that fled coalition attacks on the Iraqi air defense network). Among these is the SU-24 (NATO codename: Fencer)
a medium range strike fighter similar to the American F-111. It has the ability to operate from rough airstrips and roads and carry a substantial payload, with the possibility of carrying up to four C-802 (see above). Although it is no match for other air forces in the region, it would be the perfect platform to carry strikes against unprotected oil tankers in the opening days of the conflict, thus complicating the picture for the U.S. and its allies in the region. It is also a nuclear capable tactical bomber.
Submarines:
The Iranian Navy operates at least three Kilo class diesel electric submarines. This class of Russian built submarines are extremely quite and thrive in constricted waters, such as the ones in the Gulf. These submarines would have a hard time against the well trained and equipped ASW troops of the U.S. Navy, but then again, they would only need one hit. These submarines could also deploy frogmen ashore and mines along the Strait shipping channel. It is the mining capability that is the real threat to U.S. warships, since the U.S. has all but abandoned anti-mine warfare. The U.S. has suffered losses to mines in this area of the world before, and may do so again in the near future.
Commerce Raiders:
Civilian ships have been armed with weapons since the first pirates took to the sea. In both world wars, the Germans and the British used heavily armed transports to attack each other shipping through out the world, causing significant loses on both sides. Modern navies must face the possibility of missile armed ships anywhere in the world. The Iranians could armed dozens of small vessels with missiles or remote piloted drones and order them to attack enemy warships and commercial shipping. It was this scenario that caused the Pentagon so much grief during the summer of 2002:
In Millennium Challenge 2002, a $250 million war game designed to test the new technologies and concepts of transformation and network-centric warfare--in which U.S. forces are data-linked with one another as never before--Lt. Gen. Paul Van Riper, former president of the Marine Corps University, was asked to command the "enemy" forces. In the first days of that mock battle, he used unconventional methods, including a preemptive attack that featured air-, sea-, and ground-launched cruise missiles to sink 16 American ships. After the American forces decided to refloat the ships and restart the game, Van Riper stepped aside from his role, contending that the rest of the game was scripted for American victory. In this interview, Van Riper explains the peril of placing too much faith in technology at the expense of a deeper understanding of the nature of war. The Immutable Nature of War
All of this would occur within hours of an American offensive against Iran. And sadly, it would only be the beginning.