Okay, let's play a free association game. Minnesota: snow... cold... the movie
Fargo... people horribly mispronouncing words... cold... lots and lots of Scandinavian people... really, really cold... three possible pick-ups in the House... cold...
Wait!
Three possible pick-ups in the House!?
You probably think Minnesota is a "swing state," after all,
we've been labled one.
Sure, we did flirt red in 2000; Gore only beat Bush by two percent. And, yes, we are a little quirky--to quote Centrist Coalition:
For those of you in the other 49 states, Minnesota must seem politically schizophrenic. At one time, our two U.S. Senators were Rod Grams (a former TV anchor, and arch conservative) and Paul Wellstone (no explanation needed, I hope), and our governor was James Janos (a/k/a Jesse Ventura) (again, no explanation needed, I hope)
But at the end of the day, Minnesota is a blue state, through-and-through. In 1984,
only Minnesota and Washington, D.C. cast their electoral votes for Mondale over Reagan. In 2002, Democrats
picked up thirteen seats in the MN state house, narrowing the Republican lead to two seats, and in 2006, things are looking good for Democrats.
The Minnesota Netroots
One of the reasons (if you ask me) that Democrats are doing so well in Minnesota, is the large and vibrant blog scene.
We've got MN Publius, Minvolved, Blog of the Moderate Left, Minnesota Republican Watch, Power Liberal, and, of course, dozens more.
Take a gander through these sites; these guys really get the MN scene.
Kid Oakland has a couple of great diaries about the importance of active, local netroots, he profiles MN blogger Ollie Ox (from a Bluestem Prairie) here, and has another great one about the "netroots wave," here.
(MN Kossacks, if you've got favorites, post `em!)
The Races
MN-01:
Tim Walz, is running against rubber-stamp republican Gil Gutknecht in this rural, purple district. DFLer22 has written an excellent summary of the race here. But basically, Walz is a teacher and veteran, whose passion, eloquence, and ability to connect with voters has got Rep. Gutknecht running scared. I'll quote DFLer22:
Command Sergeant Major Walz is a fiery public speaker and is the "Republican Nightmare" in Minnesota's 1st (Minneapolis City Pages, 6/25/06). This race is ranked #46 by the National Journal.
And to tack on to DFLer22, he's ranked 39 by
hotline, and is rated "lean republican" by
Charlie Cook
Rep. Gutknecht has been
caught trying to change history via his wikipedia profile (hat tip to
ryanalexander), and is a pretty wormy guy.
Go check out Walz wipe the floor with him during their debate
here.
And guys, his nickname is the Republican Nightmare. What's not to love?
Here's his site, go donate!
As the darling of the MN netroots, the tubes are abuzz with Tim Walz. Here are some local blogs covering the race:
In MN-01
-Ollie Ox from a Bluestem Prairie of kid oakland fame.
-Vox Verax covers nation stuff as well, but is an MN-01 blog.
In broader MN
-The coverage from Minvolved has been nothing short of spectacular.
-MN Publius and Minnesota Republican Watch have also been doing a spectacular job.
(Again, MN Kossacks, if you have more, put `em down!)
MN-06:
This is the biggest pick-up opportunity we have in Minnesota. Charlie Cook puts it in the lean Republican column. It is a conservative district, but State Senator Bachman's career has been something of a freak show. Known for her extreme homophobia already, she was caught hiding in the bushes spying on a gay rights rally. She's insane. Really, really, insane. But she just got a huge boost from President Bush. In the four hours that he was in Minnesota, he raised an easy half million.
Patty Wetterling, already well known for her work as a child safety advocate, can compete in the conservative sixth district. She almost won in 2004 against enormous asshole Rep. Mark Kennedy.
She's a great woman, and is running a strong campaign against (as best as I can tell) one of the craziest people in politics.
MN GOP Watch and MN Publius have the goods on Bachmann vs. Wetterling.
Here's her site; go donate!
MN-02
This is, unfortunately, the least likely pick-up for us. Charlie Cook doesn't think it's competitive, and CW is that Kline will win. That said, Kline is a terrible person, and I would love to see Rowley kick his ass.
We got a close-up view of the slimy, immoral Kline campaign here on Dkos a little bit ago from Diogenes Cynic.
The guys a dick, and Rowley is a good woman. Here's her site, go donate!
Conclusion
I'm something of a pessimist, so I'm predicting that we pick-up MN-06, lose MN-01 by a hair, and lose MN-02 by five or six points. I'm predicting that if Minnesota doesn't get a little more national love. All three races are within reach, it's just a matter of time, money, and energy in those districts. I think DailyKos can provide a little bit of useful buzz to all of these excellent candidates and important races.