The money graf from today's
Reuters piece on Hizbullah's reaction to the unexpectedly savage Israeli bombing campaign that followed its kidnap raid:
Two days after the war began, Hizbollah learned that Israel and the United States had been planning an attack in September or October. U.S. media have also said the United States was enthusiastic about Israeli plans to strike at Hizbollah.
So was Karl's October Surprise Plan to wipe the Beq'aa Valley clean of Hizbullah, intimidate Syria and Iran, and get Bush a smashing "GWOT victory" in time for the 2006 elections? Did Hizbullah's raid cause overeager neocons to experience a premature cluster bomb ejaculation? I guess sometimes you have to go to war with the pretext you have rather than the one you want. More below the fold.
It is becoming clear that the Hizbullah incursion was deemed by the Bush Admnistration to be an acceptable trigger for plans--already in progress but not yet fully arranged--to "whack" Hizbollah and Lebanon. Air attack plans were done (Israeli Chief of Staff Halutz is an IAF general.) Ground plans--not ready. The respective performance of IDF air and ground forces reflected this.
It is clear that neither Israel nor BushCo anticiapted that Hizbullah would fight back so fiecely and obtain a strategic victory against the vaunted IDF. And rather than intimidating Iran, the botched attack has merely strengthened Syrian and Iranian resolve--and the position of the "hardliners" in the collective Iranian leadership, including Ahmadinejad.
Is the October Surprise compeltely blown? Was the Lebanon War the political equivalent of Jimmy Carter's failed hostage rescue? I guess we'll just have to ask Tony Snow. . .