While Casey continues to
beat Santorum he's losing a bit of momentum. Last month, he led by 15%, this month he's only leading by 11%. Santorum's job approval
climbed up to 43% this is Santorum's highest rating since March, and he's no longer America's most unpopular Senator (although Conrad Burns now is, with a whopping 37% number.)
So why has Santorum's number's been going up? Is it his obsession with
15-20 year-old Iraqi mustard gas? Does it have to do with the fact that he's aggressively
hammering away on immigration?
Whatever the case, I'm concerned, because the gentleman from Virginia he plenty of dirty tricks up his sleeves.
For starters, his
acquisition of the PA Green Party and funding of Carl ROmanelli, their Senate candidate. The fact that the vast majority of his donations and ballot signatures came from Santorum supporters shows that Ricky boy is desperate.
Santorum has shown in the past month or so that he is only beginning. What concerns me is that this race could turn into a replay to the CA_50 special election: a seemingly strong candidate + lack of enthusiasm of our base + swiftboating on the issue of immigration = GOP victory.
I guarantee you that Santorum will launch a "divide and conquer" campaign to highlight Casey's stances on abortion and other issues that we may not agree with him on (and perhaps exaggerate Casey's social conservatism.) IN last year's Virginia Governor's race, Jerry Kilgore did something similar against Time Kaine, by having robo-calls ask Democratic voters if they were more or less likely to vote for Kaine based on issues where he stood to the right of his base. When I read about Kilgore's tricks back in October, I was already thinking that Santorum will try this shit in 2006. I believe that you will see Kilgore-esque tactics against our guy.
Look for this race to tighten, but don't become apathetic about Casey. We need to fight someone who will be one of the Republican's more determined swiftboaters.
...Also, this is a random question, but does anyone know Rasmussen's numbers on WVA-Senate, NY-Senate, and NY-Governor? They are current for premium members, but I don't want to sign up to see them.