Cross-posted at
Blog and Tan.
Something is just not adding up. Today it has been revealed that according to Rumsfeld,
Bush has authorized troop reductions. Troop levels will be dropped by two brigades, several thousand men. "The adjustment being announced today is a recognition of the Iraqi people's progress in assuming added responsibility for their country," he said.
That progress is, at the least, highly questionable. According to a recent analysis by
the Independent, "Iraq is disintegrating." Instead of the secular government desired by the US, the religious Shia seem to have won decisively, but with strong dissent in Kurdish and Sunni areas. The result is highly polarized based on ethnic and political lines; this does not present a good omen for a united Iraq. In fact, ironically, the analysis speculates that Iran may end up with more power over Iraq.
More after the flip...
Meanwhile, the
AP reports today that thousands are marching on Baghdad and elsewhere to protest rigged elections. The Independent article points out that the Shia won by a "far greater" margin than expected.
What is going on here? The protests could be written off as expected in the first gasp of democracy in a Middle Eastern country, but at the same time, given Iraq's hodge-podge history, are people foolish to expect anything BUT a divided nation?
Further, after weeks of hurling words like "coward" and "anti-American" at anyone suggesting we start withdrawing, it looks like that has been the plan all along--to withdraw troops after the election. In fact, from the looks of it, I suspect our leaders might be painting a rosy picture of the election outcome in order to justify the pullout, which due to political pressure has to take place whether or not the election is actually a success.
What do you think?