The most ridiculous assertion Arlen Specter ever made was a single bullet killed President John F. Kennedy. Often ridiculed, Specter's "magic bullet" theory claims a solitary shot went through Kennedy's neck, passed all the way through his throat, went into the President's chest, and then entered then-Texas Gov. John Connally. The notoriety Specter gained from this theory helped elect him to the United States Senate--a position that is now in serious jeopardy.
U.S. Rep. Pat Toomey (R-15), a politician somewhere to the right of Attila the Hun, is mounting a primary challenge against Specter, charging the four-term senator is too moderate. In order to hit all the signs pointing to his defeat in the April 23 Republican primary, Specter will need several dozen magic bullets.
Specter is in danger of taking some mortal wounds from Toomey's rhetoric, but all this exchange of hostilities may end up benefiting a bystander. Let's see how.
Toomey has charged Specter with being a closet liberal, moving to the right only when the Republican primary arrives. While Specter points to endorsements from President George W. Bush and ubèr-right-wing Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) as proof of his conservative credentials, there is an endorsement he isn't mentioning. Robert A. Scardelletti, president of the Transportation Communications International Union, has written a letter to his Pennsylvania membership urging them to vote for Specter in the Republican primary. Urging his mostly Democratic membership to switch registration, Scardelletti called the race "vitally important." Scardelletti's union is also a firm backer of presumed Democratic presidential nominee Sen. John Kerry. The fact Specter needs help from a Democratic-leaning labor union to beat Toomey in the Republican primary shows his weakness. No amount of smoke from guns firing magic bullets can hide the truth: people who want to take down President Bush are supporting Sen. Arlen Specter. That can only damage him in the Republican primary.
Toomey is not well-known outside his area of the state. Most Republican primary voters are unfamiliar with his positions on the issues, while most have heard of Specter. Even so, a recent poll of registered Republicans showed Toomey within striking distance with 47 percent going for Specter and 38 percent for the conservative congressman. There is nearly a month before the election and Toomey can only go up in the polls. Most interestingly, the poll found Specter is actually leading among self-described "pro-life" voters. Specter supports Roe v. Wade, while Toomey would like to turn back the clock on abortion rights, preferring that women be forced into back-alley abortions. As anti-choice voters learn about the differences between Toomey and Specter, many of them are likely to change their vote. The race will receive more and more coverage in press across Pennsylvania and conservatives will realize who the true right-winger is. That will hurt Specter in the Republican primary, no matter how many magic bullets he fires.
Even if Specter leads among registered Republicans, that's no guarantee he will win the primary. Without a contested presidential nomination and few interesting local races, primary voters are likely to only be the hardcore supporters of the Republican Party. In Pennsylvania, this translates to far right conservatives who Toomey will whip into frenzy by the time April 23 comes around. Low voter turnout, almost assured now that the Democratic Primary and accompanying media coverage is all but over, helps Toomey. His supporters are diehard, while Specter's are only lukewarm at best. When you are an anti-tax, pro-gun, anti-choice fundamentalist, it's hard to buy into a strategic vote for a man who has only gotten a 50 percent rating from the American Conservative Union. Compared to Toomey, Specter looks like Dennis Kucinich. A lot of magic bullets will be needed to hit all the diehard conservatives that will be voting on primary day. It seems doubtful Specter will be able to hit them all.
All of this is to say that if Toomey wins the primary, it will be much easier for Congressman Joe Hoeffel, the Democratic nominee for Pennsylvania Senate, to win. Toomey might be appeal to Republican primary voters, but he is way out of step with the mainstream of Pennsylvania. What's interesting about the Republican primary is what issues haven't been discussed. No mention of the 370,000 Pennsylvanians currently out of work. Neither Specter nor Toomey has addressed the 157,200 manufacturing jobs Pennsylvania has lost since the start of the Bush administration. Toomey may be good at appealing to wingnuts across the state- and he will probably beat Sen. Specter--but I think Joe Hoeffel will have the last laugh.