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From the diaries -- kos)
cross-posted from Burnt Orange Report
The courts have drawn the redistricting map. There will be an open primary on November 7th, with a December run-off for anyone who doesn't get a full 50% of the vote. Deadline to file in the new districts will be August 25th.
From the Statesman:
The panel reunited Webb County, which includes the majority-Hispanic city of Laredo, and placed it entirely in the 28th Congressional District, which is adjacent to the 23rd District. It added portions of Bexar County, which includes San Antonio, to the 23rd District. The district stretches from Laredo to El Paso County and north to San Antonio.
...
The 23rd District, represented by Republican U.S. Rep. Henry Bonilla of San Antonio, under the map the judges issued Friday, has a 61 percent Hispanic voting age population, compared with 51 percent under the Republican-led redistricting. It also now will be more evenly divided between Democratic and Republican voters.
Update: Info on potential candidates below the maps.
Check out the interactive map at this site as map 1438 (Court Ordered Districts LULAC v. Perry). Here is a population and general election breakdown of the 5 districts that were changed.
Instant thoughts on all this... Cuellar just became safe in his 28th District as all of his Laredo base is united. Hinojosa gets widened a bit as he picks up the leftovers in South Texas after Doggett was retracted north into Travis but I don't see him being affected much. Smith just became a safe seat in 21 as he shed the liberal precincts in Austin (minus the UT campus, dammit) as he picked up 75% Republican rural counties he used to represent.
Bonilla becomes a target as he picks up huge parts of Democratic South San Antonio as he loses some of the Republican Hill Country. Bexar County most recently was known as Ciro Rodriguez's base when he ran against Cuellar in the primary this spring. So does Ciro run against Bonilla? He's got to be thinking about it, but he's still in dept Bonilla has $2,243,274.54 on hand... There is the current Democratic nominee Rick Bolanos, but he hasn't filed an FEC report to date.
For reference, here are the 2002-2003 lines, after the regular redistricting, but before the Delay Redistricing which are the 2004-2005 lines.
Here are closeup maps of Travis County as well as Bexar County. White districts are the unaffected CD-10 (McCaul-R) and CD-20 (Gonzales-D).
District 21 & 23- Lamar Smith (R) & Henry Bonilla (R)
District 25- Lloyd Doggett (D)
District 28 & 15- Henry Cuellar (D) & Ruben Hinojosa
And for a nice comparison of the old and new maps...
UPDATE
This is from a source with ears open and listening in San Antonio. Consider this the initial list of anyone who could potentially run and may be looking at their options, not a list of those that will end up in the much smaller list that we should have settle over the weekend.
Julian Castro (former City Councilman and Mayoral candidate), State Rep. David Leibowitz, former Congressman Ciro Rodriguez (for sure), SA City Councilman Art Hall (Dem who gave the opening invocation at the state convention in June, and who represents the North/Northwest portion of CD-23 in Bexar County), SA City Councilman Richard Perez, current candidate Rick Bolanos, and attorney Rene Barrientos.
Names are being thrown around like crazy right now. I can tell you for sure that SA City Councilman Roland Gutierrez is out (he's gonna be our next mayor... you heard it here first) and some crazy bastard just told me that Madla is thinking about running. My major question is, where is West Texas and border Rep. Pete Gallegos gonna stand?
Seriously, this is the first time in forever that we've had an open opportunity for a SA Dem to move up to Congress so they are coming out of the woodwork right now.
Early speculation? Ciro has early money, but I don't know if anyone else gives to him. I think that the two strongest candidates are Gallegos and Castro. And we need to be worried about too many Dems hopping in this race, fighting amongst themselves and letting Bonilla rise above the fray and take 50% plus 1 on November 7.
Absent from that is State Sen. Carlos Uresti. While his senate district almost exactly overlaps the new 23, he just got out of the primary beating incumbant Frank Madla this spring. While I'd love him, there is far less chatter about him. Now Pete Gallego in HD-73 which covers the western half of the district is certainly one I'll keep an eye on too... Remember, it's open filing and the prior filings are void. Then candidate Rick Bolanos has to physically refile if he wants to run; it doesn't automatically switch over.
But if you asked me right now, the short list I'd give you (in order) are Julian Castro, Ciro Rodriguez, and Pete Gallego...