Hey, this is my first diary and will probably be a short one at that, so bear with me.
Now, I have been coming to Daily Kos and Mydd for a while now, a little over a year, and have become quite addicted to the blogosphere as a whole (I check it about once an hour). Even though I share Mr. Lieberman's religion, I've never liked the man, mainly for his views on censorship. Now, this is my first diary, mainly because I honestly want to ask a question. Who do you think we are going to win in Conneticut?
Now, I know, this has been asked a million times, and in our anxious panic it will probably be asked a million times each of the next few days until Tuesday. But, the reason I ask is this. Now, the polls look good, and we are hearing many success stories coming back from volunteers in CT, but to be frank, this isn't the first time. I heard this in Texas a few months ago when we went after Cuellar. I heard it in June when we after CA-50. Both of these times I heard many different reasons why we were going to win, and heard many success stories about "everyone I talked to is voting for our guy." With Busby, there was even an internal poll showing her leading.
On the other hand, I have seen many successes. In Montana, Tester won by a margin that was so large is literally scared the crap out of some people. In 2005, we destroyed in Virginia where a few weeks earlier it had looked all but lost, and up to the day it looked like it would be a toss-up, and then we ended up winning by a fair margin. While it wasn't wholly suprising in Virginia with Webb, it definately wasn't expected that he would win after starting in the race so much later than his opponent. In all of these, we had similar situations to the failures we have had.
Now, it all comes down to this. While conventional wisdom would show Lamont winning in a landslide, conventional wisdom does not apply here, because unlike Montana and Virginia, the party HAS already chosen someone, and so they are putting lots of pressure on our guy, so the tremendous lead in Independent polls, which tend to be reliable, are lessened in degree.
Also, as Kos and Matt Stoller have pointed out, finding the "Likely Primary Voters" in this election is quite difficult, especially because of the 4000 (or whatever the fuck Lieberman is doing, that guy sends just as many mixed signals daily) people to canvass get the vote out election day. As well, Tim Tagaris has made it quite clear that the internal numbers aren't as great as the Independent ones (which is very odd when you look at most races).
So in the end, I really want to ask everyone out there, in the blogosphere that I like to call home, in the movement I am glad to be a part of as much as a 16 year old in conservative rural California can be (Buck McKeon, the Chairman who attached the Estate Tax amendment to the Minimum Wage Bill), especially those on the ground of Conneticut, who know much more than the rest of us, who do you think is going to win, and who do you honestly think is doing a better job at canvassing (you can answer that in the comments section)
So, that is the end of my first diary. Thanks for putting up with the no links to other places (I am new at this and don't know how to do that), and please answer.