Atlanta's WXIA-11 is reporting that the latest polling, through today, is now giving Hank Johnson a substantial 13 point lead in his runoff against incumbent Cynthia McKinney:
According to InsiderAdvantage.com, as of Tuesday morning, Johnson led with 53 percent to McKinney's 40 percent, with seven percent still undecided.
While WXIA didn't report the margin-of-error, if the poll is reasonably accurate and the conventional wisdom that undecideds break towards challengers holds true, Hank Johnson could be headed for a landslide victory tonight.
(If you want to see GA-04 stay on the front page for a while, hit Recommend or otherwise it will be quickly relegated to the bottom of the pile by Lamont-Liebermania)
More below the fold...
As Atlanta Journal Constitution Editorial Page Editor Cynthia Tucker predicted last week, Johnson is evidently making strong inroads among African American voters, as evidenced by this:
In recent days, the candidates have faced off with each other, fighting for the votes that will send one of them to Washington. Insider Advantage notes that the African American vote - thought to be the deciding factor in this race - is split between the two at 50-50.
The entire WXIA commentary can be found here.
Another factor that could benefit Johnson is expected strong turnout in north DeKalb County precincts. This will be partially driven, IMHO, by two factors:
1.Anti-McKinney sentiment is especially strong in the Decatur area, home to progressive, politically active and substantial Jewish and gay/lesbian populations. McKinney has long-angered the former because of her Middle East policy positions and her father's legendary anti-Semitic comments. She has lost substantial support from the latter by, among other reasons, refusing to personally meet with gay/lesbian community leaders during this election cycle. Johnson did, affirming his support for civil unions and ENDA, as well as voicing strong opposition to "don't-ask-don't-tell".
2.Progressive Jim Martin, facing Greg Hecht in the Lt. Governor runoff, has a strong base of support in DeKalb that will likely rally to his side.
DeKalb County officials are forecasting double the usual turnout rates for this runoff.
Although McKinney's previous campaigns have evidenced strong GOTV operations in south DeKalb, if Johnson is successful in garnering 50% of the vote among African Americans, McKinney chances of a win are, at best, a long shot.
In an ironic twist, McKinney made a statement in the WXIA piece that sums up what this election may be all about:
McKinney said she "will never change. People need and respect my uncompromising voice, and I'm going to provide that to the people of the Fourth Congressional District, and to the people who like the idea that I am the number-one pain for the Bush Administration and the Republican majority in the state of Georgia."
Yes, Cynthia "will never change" and has an "uncompromising voice". That's two reasons the voters of GA-04 will likely make a change today.
Make your predictions in the poll below. Have at it.