Kean is leading Menendez by roughly 4-5% in the most recent polls taken. While normally this should be cause for immediate panic, some are quicky to dismiss this, citing the fact that polls were close for Kerry in 2004 and Corzine last year. However, neither Kerry nor Corzine were ever TRAILING in the polls to Bush or Forrester, let alone trailing by four to five points!
New Jersey may seem like a solid blue state (after all, it has gone for Democratic Presidential candidates in each election since 1992, and this former battleground state has been considered "safe" or relatively so for the last three elections) but the fact of the matter is that NJ is not as blue as you would think.
Take a tour around some of the NYC suburban counties, like Morris or Monmouth, and you will see places filled with McMansions, SUV's, and "Security Moms" who made Kerry 2004 margain of victory less than half of what Gore's was.
New Jersey's Democratic Party is also rife with corruption, the inverse of the national Republican party. From Torecelli in 2002, to McGreevey in 2004, to Corzine's Attorney General and the former State Senate President
was found guilty to funneling money to a mining company, and hiding income that he received for a land deal.
Kean could possibly succeed where Forrester failed in part because people either think that his father is running, or because they associate him as being above corruption. After all, he's a boyish-looking, Boy Scout who's a volunteer firefighter and EMS worker in his spare time. How bad can he be?
Another problem is a looming property tax revolt. The state has the
highest property taxes in the nation and the issue was central in last year's Gubernatorial election. While New Jerseyians are not Freeper-types, they are leaning right partly because of property taxes. Property taxes have risen astronomically in past years. Part of the reason why this is such a problem is because NJ municipalities are more dependent on property taxes than towns in other states. There are also
wide disparities between towns that have the tax burden, due to a policy of localizing the tax system.
Unfortunately, a localize culture of corruption withing the state Democratic Party, combined with problems over taxes, could plant the seeds for a Kean Jr. victory. We CANNOT afford to lose this seat, as, to restate the obvious, it would set us back in our quest to take the Senate. Kean Jr. is no moderate either, as he supports privatizing Social Security.
Unfortunately, Kean Jr. feels that he's entitled to his seat, as the Kean family has a Bush-like penchant for dynasty.
If Menendez is smart, he'll compare Kean Jr. to a certain other empty suit son who's been occupying the Oval Office these past six years. Hitting him with ads on Social Security is another plan, as well as speaking out about property taxes. As for the probe that Christopher Christie has launched against him, well Mr. Christie is nothing more than a partisan hack.
Menendez also has much more cash than Kean, and should use this to his advantage.