In military strategy, a choke point is a geographical feature (such as a valley or defile) which forces an army to go into a narrower formation (greatly decreasing combat power) in order to pass through it. A choke point would allow a numerically inferior army to successfully fend off a larger army since the attacker would not be able to bring his superior numbers to bear.
Wikipedia Entry
Crossposted to Ruins of Empire
Arat, Iran, May 3rd 2007, 1:05 a.m. local time
Eight men from the 5th Special Operations Group fretted as they waited for friendly helos to pick them up. They had spent the last five days gathering intel on the Iranian heavy water facility in Arat. Word that the air force would start bombing Iranian nuclear facilities like Arat. That meant that they had to get out be back inside Iraq before all hell broke loose. The lieutenant in charged looked up to see two Chinooks overfly his position and wondered why they had no radioed in. He made a quick call on the helos command frequency, but got no reply. Then it dawn on him, the Iranians also had Chinooks. Before he could call back to HQ, the sounds of klaxons echoes though the hills around Arat, the enemy was alerted to their presence. The helicopters, circled above them, opened fire on their position. The lieutenant was about to call for air support when a .50 caliber round punched through his back right shoulder. Before he lost consciousness he heard the sound of more gunfire to the east and shouts in Farsi. Win or loose, this battle was out of his hands.
Along Highway 8, Near Basra , Iraq, May 3rd 2007, 8:45 a.m. local time
A captain in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards looked at the long expanse fo Highway 8, the main highway that ran from Kuwait City all the way to Baghdad. His father had fought in the last war against the Iraqis and he grown up with stories about the fierce fighting in and around Basra. Now the combat elements of an entire Iranian infantry division, some 5,000 strong occupied the area. He doubted his father would believe him how ridiculously easy it was to "liberate" the city. The British, who where supposed to garrison the city where trapped in their bases after a series of bombings two days before. For the moment they were neutralized, now it was time to go after the Americans. A small convoy of fuel trucks headed north along Highway 8. The Iranian officer counted five fuel trucks escorted by four Humvees. Now it was time to put the lessons learned at Bint Jbail to use. Without taking his eyes from his field glasses, he raised his right hand and gave the signal for the ambush to begin.
As Napoleon famously said "A army travels on its stomach." But that was in the days before the combustion engine, today armies travel on oil, lots of oil. How much? How about 3 million barrels of fuel a day. Compared that to the 2.4 million gallons per days used by the residents of Baghdad (population 5.9 million ). In fact, what was once one of the largest oil producing nations in the region now suffers from a fuel deficit. That means that the Iraq has to import refine fuel from outside the country. That fuel travels by road from Kuwait though Highway 8 to be distributed through out the country. This is to tempting a target for the Iranians is the U.S. pushes them to the wall. If the Iranians launch a insertion into Basra, they would have a significant foothold inside Iraq from where to launch raids on the Iraqi road network, plus shut down the pipelines that flow to the north and south. They would also want to seize the border town of Safwan thus closing the border with Kuwait. Combine this land assault with a closing of the Strait of Hormuz and the Iranians would have the stranglehold on the Coalition fuel supplies. In order for U.S. orders to stave off defeat, American military commanders would be face with the following options:
- Stay in place: rely on the Coalition air forces to keep them supply. American forces would attempt to open a land corridor to Turkey in hopes that the Turks will allow supplies and reinforcements to pass though their territory.
- Run for the border: This means abandoning southern and central Iraq and moving toward the northen part of Iraq, either to be among "friends" (the Kurds) or evacuate the bulk of American forces though Turkey.
- Break out, either through western Iraq (Sunni territory) or southern Iraq, taking on the Shia militias and Iranian forces.
Stay in Place:
The Americans would try to ride out the "siege" and attempt resupply through the air. The critical area would be Baghdad where there only one large airport on the city outskirts. Not only does the Americans lack the necessary aircraft (Baghdad is not Berlin) to supply the bulk of fuel and supplies to upwards of a 100,000 troops (plus civilian contractors and "loyal" Iraqi units), but delivering them would be a logistical nightmare. Aircraft would attempt to land inside a storm of anti-aircraft and artillery fire (plus the occasional insurgent raid). Even if enough supplies landed to keep the U.S. presence going, there is the problem of distributing them. Convoys coming to and from the airport would have to navigate city blocks dominated by a dizzying array of factions, nationalist Shiites and Sunnis, local police and army forces with dubious loyalties, and criminal gangs, to name a few. These forces need not coordinate with the Iranians, any insurgent worthy of the name would attack the Americans when their down. Combine that with the increasing desperation and anger of a population deprived of basic services (you can't have running water or power without oil) and central Iraq becomes a living nightmare.
Run for the Border:
American commanders, face with the scenario above may well decide that their positions are untenable and decide to retreat from Iraq all together. Their best option would be a run north, toward the Turkey. The biggest hurdle would not be military, but diplomatic. You see, in order to safely extract the bulk of the American land forces the White House would have to choose between the lesser of two evils. The Kurds would demand defacto independence and control of the oil rich region around Kirkuk. That would get the U.S. forces though their territory unscathed (they might even ask Coalition forces to secure Kirkuk for them). The Turks would ask for the complete opposite; free reign against the PKKand their supporters inside Iraq. Failure to secure Kurdish support could lead to attacks by the pershmerga and Sunni guerrillas along the American scape route. Failure to secure Turkish support means that the border would be close to the Americans, leaving them stranded on the Iraqi side of the border. Even if the Turks decide to help the Americans (along side other NATO allies), once they reached Turkey, the U.S. would be essentially out of the fight. Redeployment of these forces could take weeks and I doubt that the Turks would allow their territory to be used a launching pad for a second invasion (they refused the first time around).
Break Out:
The time has come to either fight or flee and the Americans decide that the best defense is a good offense. U.S. forces have two routes, west through Anbar province and Jordan (forget Syria) or south through Iranian held/Shiite controlled territory toward Kuwait. Either option would be a repeat of 2003. U.S. forces would seek to bypass towns and cities and run as fast as possible for the border, hoping to smash any enemy formations along the way. The opposition would avoid large engagements where the Coalition troops could pile on with armor and firepower and instead concentrate on attacking the flanks and rear areas, interdicting supply convoys along the way. If the U.S. moves west, there is a chance that the Sunni guerrillas will not engage, hoping that the U.S. would act in kind. Then again, the insurgents in Anbar province are not a monolithic block. Faction leaders may well decide that the only way to get rid of the Americans is to put constant pressure on them, enough to convince them that there are no safe heavens in this part of the country for them. Better to move fast or be trapped behind enemy lines. Once U.S. forces reach Jordan, there is a question of if the Jordanians would accept them. Jordan has a large Palestinian population as well as a thriving al-Qaeda network. The kingdom could ill afford a large number of American troops within its borders.
The other option is south. This would have the advantage of shortening the Coalition supply lines and reach a country in which they would be allowed to launch a future counter offensive (Kuwait). However, Kuwait might turn into a trap. If the Straits are closed and the western shore of the Gulf is under threat of Iranian missile strikes, it is doubtful that the Gulf states would offer much support (even if their airfields, ports, oil facilities and desalination plants where not under attack). If the Americans stay in Kuwait, it would be a return to the "stay in place" option, under somewhat favorable conditions. If the Americans choose to move through Saudi Arabia instead, they would be out of the fight, since like Turkey and Jordan, the Saudis would have every incentive to move the Americans out their territory as soon as possible. Either way, it's a lose-lose situation.