Last night Br Barnett posted
The reality of Iran's contested quasi-entry into the Core.
The argument is that Iran, looking at the mess in Iraq, listening to its trading partners in the Old Core (Germany, France) and its trading partners in the New Core (Russia, India, China), has decided that it will get what it wants in the nuclear arena.
You want your "global test" for the use of U.S. military power?
Well, it's here on Iran. It's here on Iran because on how we screwed the postwar pooch in Iraq.
You mess up as the world's policeman and you get put on probation for a while.
China is importing half again as much oil from Iran as last year, and has no interest in disrupting their supplier. The same is true of all the economic partners that Iran trades with. As Iran becomes more and more bound to the globalized economy, it will be forced to behave.
Meanwhile:
... the Bush Administration realizes that 25 years of a disconnect strategy on Iran has left us essentially out of the loop globally on this issue.
What Barnett refers to is the Embassy and hostage situation under the Carter administration. Unfortunately, America is impatient, unwilling to hang in for the long haul, and too often looking for a quick fix for its fears.
And it manifests itself in the Bush rhetoric about democracy. Who cares whether a state connected to the Core is a democracy, republic, benign dictatorship, or single party state as long as it is connected, plays by the rules of globalization and realizes that it needs to offer stability to foreign capital and its import and export markets.
And thus:
All our experts say this is all about "trusting" the untrustable Iran.
Our problem right now is that we are no longer a trusted agent in the region, thanks to the choices we've made.
Barnett notes that even though Iran has thumbed its nose at the U. S., nevertheless, it has accepted an alternative connection to the globalized economy. Iran has played a role in the region for millennium. It is stable, has fended off interference by both Britain and America, as well as having beaten Saddam. Its rising young demographic will demand greater connectivity. Foreign investment, convinced of the stability, will employ these people, bringing many of them a better life.
So, what is America to do? Bush may bluster, but we need to talk to Iran as a member of the global community. They have a significant part to play in the stability of the Middle East, and it would behoove us to be a partner.
Barnett concludes:
I'm glad the presidential season is just around the corner