The new Franklin and Marshall poll showing Joe Sestak inching ahead of Curt Weldon 44%-43% has been mentioned by
kos and in
this diary by sdf, but today's
Philadelphia Inquirer give some interesting details along with the typical back-and-forth analysis.
Details below...
All seem to agree that the mess in Iraq is the key driver in this race:
"You and I wouldn't be having this conversation if it weren't for the war in Iraq," said G. Terry Madonna, who conducts the Keystone Poll at Franklin and Marshall College.
Madonna said the war's political impact is most evident among moderate Republicans, like those in the Philadelphia suburbs, who have trouble embracing the party line.
Weldon's campaign manager responds with what is, to me, an excellent suggestion:
Weldon can turn the war issue around, said Michael V. Puppio Jr., his campaign manager. The hard question about Iraq "is what do you do about it?" he said. "It's going to force you to look at both candidates" and decide again.
Sheesh! He's actually asking those anxious, angry moderate Republican voters to take another, longer look at the two candidates' positions on Iraq...and he thinks that will make them go for Weldon? I think not!
We also see why the Republicans are trying to nationalize the local elections by having Bush and his surrogates once again making speeches aggressively trying to conflate terrorism and the war in Iraq:
Madonna's poll estimates that 31 percent of 7th district voters identify the war as the most important issue, far ahead of the economy, which came in second with 17 percent, and terrorism at 14 percent. Of those who said the war was more important, 64 percent said they were voting for Sestak. Of those who considered terrorism the key issue, 73 percent favor Weldon.
But this, to me, is the real meat of the article:
Sestak edged ahead even though only half of the respondents said they knew who he is. Asked if Weldon deserved reelection, 49 percent answered that it was "time for change."
"It is a classic example of voters wanting to throw out the incumbent and not caring who it is" they elect, said Mike Young, a Hershey pollster.
That's right. Sestak is polling 44% even when 50% of the people don't even know who he is!
Sestak's numbers will only go up as more people meet him and learn about him. So you know what that means: CONTRIBUTE and VOLUNTEER!
Joe Sestak for Congress