This is the 4th in a series of diaries dedicated to looking at the state of the states. While there's been a great deal of attention dedicated close races at the federal level, there's been a dearth of such articles examining Democratic prospects at the state level. And as was noted in the introduction to this series, the seismic shifts in 1974 and 1994 were felt more profoundly at the state level in state legislature races than in congressional races.
Today, we will be taking a closer look at Maine, the 3rd most competitive state legislature in the nation in terms of the division of the legislature, however quite possibly the state with the greatest number of closely contested seats.
Demographics
The latest Census Bureau estimates (2005) shows that Maine has a population of 1,321,505, an increase of 0.5% since 2000 (all data from Wikipedia unless otherwise noted.) This ranks Maine as the 40th most populous state in 2006 (2005 Census estimate), the same rank as the state held in 2000.
2004 Census data show Maine to be an overwhelmingly White state, with Non-Hispanic Whites composing 96.9% of population, followed by Hispanics at 0.9%, Asians at 0.8%, Blacks at 0.7%, and American Indians and Pacific Islanders at 0.6%.
The Legislature
Maine is different that the legislatures mirroring the Congress we found in Iowa and Montana. Maine has 151 members in the state House of Representatives with 2 nonvoting members present representing the Penobscot Nation and the Passamaquoddy Tribe. The Senate has 35 members who run for two year terms as do members of the House. The Maine Constitution requires House candidates to have (Art.IV, Part 1, Section 4):
....at the commencement of the period for which the person is elected, have been 5 years a citizen of the United States, have arrived at the age of 21 years, have been a resident in this State one year; and for the 3 months next preceding the time of this person's election shall have been, and, during the period for which elected, shall continue to be a resident in the district which that person represents.
No person may be a candidate for election as a member of the House of Representatives unless, at the time of the nomination for placement on a primary, general or special election ballot, that person is a resident in the district which the candidate seeks to represent.
These same requirements apply to Senators, except that they must be 25 at the time that they are elected.
Members of the Maine legislature earn on average $10, 019/year ($11,384/year for first regular session; $8,655/year for second regular session) with per diem rates of $38/day, or mileage and tolls in lieu of housing (at rate of 0.34/mile up to $38/day) and $32/day for meals. Legislators also are given a constituent service allowance (($2,000/year for Senators and $1,500/year for Representatives).With the 2007 legislative session lasting roughly 7 months, or 86 days this means Maine legislators can expect to take home roughly $ 17,103 in 2007. For a position that requires legislators to dedicate 50% of the time of an equivalent full time job, and gives them 1-2 legislative aides, this is not very good pay.
In Maine, district maps are drawn by an independent commission subject to legislative approval that must be contiguous, compact, and respect political subdivisions, however incumbent protection is allowed.
Maine House
The Maine House of Representatives is currently controlled by the Democratic Party with a knife edge majority of 74 Democrats to 73 Republicans. There are also 3 Independents and 1 Green. Each House district represents roughly 8,450 people. As is true nationally, Republicans are dominant in rural counties; while Democrats hold the majority in urban counties and near the coast. In the 2004 election, 53 of Maine's 151 house seats were won by a margin of less than 10%, and 94 seats were decided by a margin of less than 20%. Maine is extremely competitive at the district level, having few of the landslide districts found in other states. If there is a tidal wave nationally against the Republican Party the Republicans could easily lose 50 or more seats in the Maine House.
Top Maine House Margin (by percent)
HD Party Margin Democratic Candidate
27 R 1.7% Julius Erdo
41 R 1.1% Lance Wendell
42 R 0.1% Donna Gilbert
43 D 0.3% Walter Ash
56 R 0.3% Kimberly Silsby
67 D 0.6% Seth Berry
89 D 1.4% Paul Leo Tessier
91 R 1.0% Timothy A. Carter
95 R 1.9% Roy G. Gedat
101 R 2.0% Thomas J Bossy
106 D 2.0% David C Webster
113 D 1.1% John Brautigam
139 D 0.3% Joseph A Wagner
142 R 1.8% Andrea M Boland
146 R 11.9% Adam B Scharff
It bears repeating that 2% of 8,450 is 169, which means that all of these races were decided by the votes of less than 200 votes. In a close year a surge due to anti-incumbent fervor could drive Maine Republicans into an endangered status, and complete the long ,strange trip by which Maine has gone from being rockribbed Republican to predominantly Democratic.
In 2004, Democrats ran no candidate in 5 House races. In 2006, Democrats have a candidate in every House race, and Democrats are running unopposed in 5 House races (1, 2, 90, 118, 136). Maine is an extremely competitive environment, and has a large and important Green party that holds 1 seat in the House. In many districts the Green party may be the main opposition to Democrats.
Maine Senate
The Maine Senate is currently controlled by Democrats, 19 Democrats to 16 Repulblicans. Each Senate district represents roughly 36,455 people.
In the 2004 election, 13 of Maine's 35 Senate seats were won by a margin of less than 10%, and 25 seats were decided by a margin of less than 20%. In 2004, Democrats ran no candidate in 1 House race. In 2006, Democrats have a candidate in every Senate race, and Democrats are running unopposed in 1 Senate race (10).
Top Maine House Margin (by percent)
SD Party Margin Dem Candidate
32 D 1.5% Joseph C Perry
13 R 2.3% Marjorie M Medd
34 R 2.7% J Chipman Beckwith
21 D 2.9% Charles D Fisher
24 D 4.9% Richard Ryan Dort
Conclusion
Maine is the state where a total Republican collapse is most likely. If we create a scenario in which Bush fatigue pulls Republicans down by 5% at the polls, then any district in which the Republican margin was less than 10% is at risk. If Democrats win all these seats, then Republicans will lose 32 House seats, so that Democrats would control the Maine House 106D-41R. In the Senate, Republicans would lose 6 seats in the Senate, leaving Democrats in control of the Senate, 25 D-10R. And, you have to ask how long can 2 moderate Republican US Senators remain faithful to the party if their party goes extinct at the state level?