Gen Ali Reza Asgari a high ranking Iranian general has defected toward the west.
Gen Ali Reza Asgari a very high placed Iranian whi general seems to have defected, I've been following this story for a couple of days now and only recently decided to write a report on it. Now the information is sketchy with varying news reports, but there are some things that can be generally confirmed.
One this guy has left, and he was important.
Asgari was believed to have been in possession of documents proving Iran's links to terrorists in the Middle East, the Times reported, though they said he did not have details of the country's nuclear program.
Asgari served as a high value military commander who acted as a liaison between Tehran's clerics and Lebanon's Hezbollah during the 1980s. Experts say Asgari would have knowledge of Hezbollah's infrastructure and their military capabilities.
"This is a man who has occupied high positions inside the Iranian government since the Iran-Iraq War and has had access to intelligence on national security matters," Saab said.
Not only did he serve as Iran's deputy defense minister under former President Mohammed Khatami, but he also is a retired general who was a commander in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in the 1980s and 1990s.
Therefore, the Iranians clearly have worried that he might be providing Western intelligence agencies with a wealth of information on the capabilities of the Iranian armed forces, and possibly helping to improve their understanding of the relationship between the IRGC (or "Pasdaran," in Farsi) and Hezbollah, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Iraqi Shiite groups such as the Mehdi Army and the Badr Brigade. Given his background, he also would be in a position to shed light on the Pasdaran's clandestine abilities abroad and perhaps identify other Iranian intelligence officers.
This defection couldn't have come at a more worse time for the Iranian government, facing a new round of international sanctions, and with their relationship with Russia suffering for for lack of payment for a nuclear reactor.
The disputed reactor outside the southern city of Bushehr is not part of Iran's dispute with the U.N. Security Council; the reactor itself has no potential military use.
But Russia announced this month that construction would be delayed at least two months because Iran had failed to make monthly payments since January. It said the delay could cause "irreversible" damage to the project.
Finally showing more resolve then usual, the new round of sanctions have come along faster then I had thought they were.
The proposed Security Council resolution includes a ban on Iranian arms exports, an assets freeze on individuals and firms involved in Tehran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs and a call to nations and institutions to bar new grants or loans.
With Iran desperate for foregin investment, this is going to hurt them.
Going back to Gen Ali Reza Asgari there seems to be little doubt of when and where he vanished, the questions that have began to arise is how he vanished.
Asgari disappeared under odd circumstances last month while traveling to Turkey from Damascus where he never checked into his hotel, leading to accusations from Tehran that Western intelligence officials orchestrated his kidnapping.
An Israeli newspaper, the Yedioth Aharonot, reported over the weekend that Mossad, Israel's external security service, had arranged for Asgari's escape, though it was not evident which intelligence service he was working for. On Feb. 7, four days after arriving in Damascus, Asgari reportedly boarded a flight to Istanbul where he was given a new passport and left Turkey by car.
Iranian government officials have issued a series of contradictory claims about the defection of Gen. Alireza Asgari, 63, who "disappeared" from his hotel room in Istanbul, Turkey on Feb. 7 and reportedly defected to the United States.
There seems to be some debate wither he has come into the waiting arms of the United States, or the Israelis. Then again with our close relationship, it won't be long before any intelligence acquired from him his shared.
If the CIA has managed to actually pull off this defection, it would be a surprising fit of competence for an agency that hasn't had some very good years recently.
Typically the Iranian government is going through the standard mantra, "accusation", "play down", "discredit"
When reports of Gen. Asgari's disappearance first surfaced last week, the regime immediately claimed that he had been "abducted" while on an overseas vacation, either by an Israeli or a U.S. intelligence unit.
Gen. Ghasemi is the deputy chief of counterintelligence for the Revolutionary Guards. Over the weekend, he recommended that the regime blame the "kidnapping" of Asgari on the Mujahedin-e Khalq, a militant opposition group that was supported all during the 1980s and the 1990s by Saddam Hussein.
All this comes as no surprise to Iranian commentator Alireza Nourizadeh, who told NewsMax last week to expect a "smear campaign" against Gen. Asgari in the state-controlled media
.
"In the next few days, they will make every effort to destroy this man's reputation," he said. "This man came out with lots of secrets."
The Iranians will have to do a thorough damage-control investigation to determine every secret to which Asghari had access.
They most assuredly will downplay the significance of Washington's intelligence score by making public claims that Asghari was of minimal importance and had no access to current information. However, in the end, the most crucial question Tehran will need to answer is, "How long has Asghari been working for the Americans?"
If the answer is "a long time," the damage to Iran's national security could be enormous.
This does not bode well for the Iranians at all Asghari is a valuable gold mind of information, and if he is spilling his secrets to western intelligent agencies. Now only a fool would say he knew positively what information he is sharing but I can guess.
Personally I would say it would be more along the lines of Iran's obvious connection to Hezbollah, some detailed plans about the Iranian response to an American attack and possible links to the Iranians with Iraqi insurgent groups.
It would be a valuable grab if he had any knowledge of the Iranian nuclear energy program, even physical knowledge of where some of the secret Iranian research facilities would be invaluable.
According to the Jerusalem Newswire, however, Asgari is familiar with Iran`s nuclear and ballistic missile programs, in addition to holding documents firmly connecting the Iranian government to Lebanon`s Hezbollah, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and the two largest militias in Iraq -- the Mahdi Army and the Badr Corps. The reports also indicated that he knew of Tehran`s preparations for possible military conflict with the U.S.
This is all pure speculation though, as the Bush administration seems surprisingly tight lipped about this. I believe after getting hammered on Iraq which was rife with intelligence failures, they want to pump Asghari for every bit of information and confirm it before trying to make a case.
If it does pan out though, it could provide Bush with much needed justification for taking any military action against Iran. If I were the Democrats in congress, I would begin looking into this myself, less they be forced to be the party in a position to back such an action less they face the wrath of the American voter.
On this note, I will end it, but I've come across an interesting rumor that may seem to suggest a second defection from within the Iranian ranks. A Brig. Gen. Seyed Mohammad Soltani has been reported
Gen. Soltani is a career intelligence officer, who took over as head of the Persian Gulf bureau of Rev. Guards intelligence in October 2006. On Feb. 8, just one day after Gen Asgari disappeared in Istanbul, Gen. Soltani traveled to Bandar Abbas, where he was scheduled to inspect an intelligence listening post. Instead, he vanished.
P.S. I encourage all relevant debate, and thank you for those people who continue to make my stay here welcome, despite references to puppy dog eyes.
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