The unwritten joke might begin, "So, three New Yorkers walk into a presidential race..."
That is, if the next election pits a Senator from New York, the Mayor of New York City, and the former Mayor of New York City.
A year from now, when the nominating process is just a memory (except for the formality of the conventions) and the general election is in full-sling (not a typo), the New York-only scenario could be a reality. But it's only one of many intriguing scenarios that could play out between now and then.
I'm prone to dabbling in hypotheticals, and for me, the current polls and debates are a mere appetizer for the main course ahead. And as you'll read below, there's a good chance that the main course isn't even on the menu yet.
Follow me over the jump for my take on some (very realistic) hypotheticals and how they could impact the nominees, the eventual winner, and history's epilogue on the 2008 Presidential.
Today, there are 18 people running for president, including a woman, a black man, a Mormon and a Hispanic who have already walked into the proverbial bar. But three as-yet undeclareds are poised to trigger an avalanche of chaos on today's front-runners:
(R) Fred Thompson
(I) Michael Bloomberg
(D) Al Gore
The fundraising ability, campaign prowess, star power and ideology of each "wildcard" will completely change the landscape of the election -- whether 1, 2 or all 3 of them actually enter the race. Here's how.
The Starting Point:
If we go on the current national polls alone, P-2008 would be a Clinton/Giuliani race. If you look closer at influential early state polls, Iowa and New Hampshire suggest a possible Clinton/Romney race. From a polling standpoint, it's likely that Hillary beats Mitt, but has a slightly harder time dispensing of Rudy.
Enter the wildcards.
Hypothetical #1: Fred Thompson Gets In
ODDS: A foregone conclusion.
One post-debate poll out of New Hampshire shows Thompson overtaking a floundering McCain and breathing down Giuliani's neck like an obscene phone call. Another poll puts Romney in 1st.
And it's Mitt Romney who should be most concerned with Fred.
Today, at Rolling Stone:
The latest Rasmussen poll has Hollywood Fred in a first-place tie with Mr. 9/11 at 24 percent. That’s pretty stunning — and Thompson deserves credit. His quietly confident above-the-fray campaign has left the actor as a clean receptacle for much of the strong-brewed, none-of-the-above sentiment that’s fueling the GOP base right now.
We already know how the "real" conservatives feel about Rudy. We also know how they feel about actors. And we know that many of the social conservatives can't bring themselves to rally behind Romney. So in this scenario, Thompson becomes the "viable" version of Romney -- the true conservative without the potentially-unelectable Mormon baggage.
Romney (who in my opinion could win the nomination if Thompson opts out) gets cast aside in a collective sigh of conservative relief and Giuliani would battle Thompson for the nomination. Predictions on that in a minute, but first...
Hypothetical #2: Michael Bloomberg Gets In
ODDS: Very good.
Bloomberg has more in common with Giuliani than his resume. He, too, takes a bit of a "Republicrat" approach to policy, combining fiscal conservativism with a more moderate, and often liberal, social politic.
An independent entry from Bloomberg would play well against the backdrop of a growing American frustration with partisan politics-as-usual. While most Republicans can't even remember what public approval feels like, Congressional Democrats aren't being showered with love, either. And in an early state like New Hampshire, where 44% of registered voters are independents, he could make a strong and influential showing.
He's got the cash to wait out the summer, and won't need to partake in the traditional nominating process as an independent. Like Gore (below), the "above the fray" strategy could make him appealing late.
A Bloomberg (I) candidacy likely hurts Giuliani most. Bloomberg has the money to go on the offensive against the front-runner, and frankly, NYC today likes Mike more than Rudy.
If Bloomberg gets in and Thompson doesn't, you get a 3-way match-up of Clinton, Bloomberg and Romney (one man's opinion). If both Bloomberg and Thompson get in, you get Clinton, Bloomberg and quite possibly, Thompson. Predictions later.
Hypothetical #3: Gore Gets In
ODDS: Even
My personal opinion is that Gore wants to run, but he wants a muddy race -- a dead-heat between Clinton and Obama -- before he announces. If Clinton continues to pull away, I'm guessing that Gore stays out.
We know that there's no love lost between Al and Hillary. We know that within 24 hours of announcing, Gore would likely shatter internet fundraising records. And we know that in An Assault on Reason, he's already written every campaign speech he'll ever need.
So if you're sick of seeing Hillary's name in this diary, here's where it ends.
While a Gore entry isn't necessarily an automatic nomination, it's pretty close. Assuming he announces in early fall -- when the Iraq War has used up its one last chance and Congressional Democrats still can't find their one collective testicle on defunding -- Al Gore can enter as the unifier, the peacemaker, the leader.
So there are actually 8 possibilities here. In each case, I'll give you my ultimate match-up, with the winner in bold.
None of these 3 enter (Clinton v. Romney)
All of these 3 enter (Gore v. Thompson v. Bloomberg)
Thompson in; Bloomberg and Gore out (Clinton v. Thompson)
Thompson and Bloomberg in; Gore out (Clinton v. Thompson v. Bloomberg)
Thompson and Gore in; Bloomberg out (Gore v. Thompson)
Bloomberg in; Thompson and Gore out (Clinton v. Romney v. Bloomberg)
Gore in; Bloomberg and Thompson out (Gore v. Romney)
Gore and Bloomberg in; Thompson out (Gore v. Romney v. Bloomberg)
What's your take? I'll tell you mine in the tip jar.
Part II later this week: Potential running mates for the top tier.