My world view has become simple. I don't trust much of what the MSM says. Too frequently wrong. Too frequently convenient in reporting on the actions of our government. And if that sounds too paranoid to the young who populate Kos, or to the mainstream who read and write at Kos, I would suggest that recent history bears out a relationship between our CIA and our media.
I've adapted a paradigm for my paranoia. I read MSM news accounts with a grain of salt, sifting them for fact and vetting the possible propaganda uses of each news item. I'm told that this is what news consumers did in the cold-war Soviet Union, while reading the official TASS news agency accounts of the world. And while our press may (or may not) be more free of propaganda than than TASS of that age, this paradigm for reading MSM news has served me well. By reading between the lines of press accounts, I've been able to have a more accurate vision of the world than most Americans. I was among that minority that were calling Iraq a pure load of baloney in 2002 -- just based on sifting through the government and MSM propaganda. (Not to brag here, as I'm sure most reading here have developed the same skills and reached the same conclusions -- but we were not a popular group when holding that opinion in 2002).
At any rate, I was reading today's headlines with my TASS goggles on, and came across this item of big news: We're cracking down on al-Sadr.
U.S. and Iraqi forces arrested one of Muqtada al-Sadr's top aides Friday in Baghdad, his office said, as pressure increased on the radical Shiite cleric's militia ahead of a planned security crackdown in the capital.
The surge is working! We are now winning the War in Iraq. Bush's new plan has resulted in the almost immediate conversion of al-Maliki toward addressing his internal Shiite death squad/militia problem. Halla-freaking-loo-ya.
And better still. Al-Sadr has issued statements about the crackdown that express his displeasure, but are far from the reaction one might expect from a fire-brand cleric.
Al-Sadr said in an interview with an Italian newspaper published Friday that the crackdown had already begun and that 400 of his men had been arrested.
--snip--
In the interview with La Repubblica, al-Sadr said his militias would not fight back during the Muslim holy month of Muharram, saying it was against the faith to kill at that time.
"Let them kill us. For a true believer there is no better moment than this to die: Heaven is ensured," he was quoted as saying. "After Muharram, we'll see."
--snip--
Al-Sadr said he is being targeted.
"For this reason, I have moved my family to a secure location. I even have had a will drawn up, and I move continuously in a way that only few can know where I am," he was quoted as saying by Repubblica.
And al-Sadr's militia commanders back-up their boss's assessment and general aquiesence with the latest joint Iraqi-U.S. "surge round-up."
Militia commanders have said the Shiite prime minister has stopped protecting the fighters under pressure from Washington and have described pinpoint raids in which at least five top commanders of similar standing were captured or killed in recent months.
The article goes on to describe how these actions will affect the tenuous balance between al-Maliki and al-Sadr. The reprisals that have come, and those that may come later.
But to read the headline, and the substance of this early report on the "surge," at face value, one is left with an undeniable sense. Hey, al-Maliki is cracking down on his own. Al-Sadr is troubled by this, and not offering up an immediate bloodbath. In fact, he'll be in hiding for the next holy month or so. My God, has Bush's new plan gotten off to pretty good start?
[Tass Goggles On]This is a public relations script written by a White House lackey. Bush orders al-Maliki to get with the program. Al-Maliki rails against Rice and the U.S. in public, but takes immediate action, rounding up 400 bad guys (of the tens of thousands of armed militia men in Sadr City, along with selected leaders. Al-Sadr makes a public statement declaring a holy month off to flee for his life, and consider what action to take.
In reality, this is a planned vacation for a few hundred Sadrists. Perhaps the selected fall of a less than favored Sadr loyalist. It plays well in the press, but does little or nothing to impact the military power of al-Sadr. He takes it easy for a month, until the pressure of the surge dies down. And then it is back to the business at hand. Purging as many Sunnis as he freaking-well can.
I come to my conclusions based on al-Sadr's past history. He has proven willing to fight both the Americans, and other factions, both Sunni and Shia, within Iraq. He possesses the strongest single fighting force in Iraq, save for the U.S. military (or so we are told). When he feels his interests are threatened, like when al-Maliki was on his way to Jordan to meet with the Bushies, he was willing to threaten a pull out from the coalition government (which does not exist without his continued support).
To the extent al-Sadr ever perceives an actual, existential threat, to his own power base, he has proven he is a fighter. The al-Mahdi Army will be brought to bear, ultimately, in a pretty ugly battle, if at all. And he'll be brought to justice, only through a nasty fight (which will make him a martyr and inspire his millions of followers) or through some act of betrayal (which will have similar martyrizing effects).
The fact that al-Sadr is going on vacation, rather than fighting, indicates that he has a deal with al-Maliki to put on a show of "Oh the government is serious about a death-squad crackdown now." Imagine gangsters in Chicago during prohibition. You own the police force, but every now and then, for the sake of public officials, and the public itself, you have to agree to a staged raid on your operations. Everybody gets bailed out by the corrupt system, and it is on to business. And if the day ever comes when the system is really going to take you down without your acquiescence, you fight like hell. [Tass goggles off]
I'm pretty sure I'm right about this. I've been wrong before, using this propaganda sifting sense. But I get better reality results compared to a person who just reads the MSM news, and takes it at face value.
Just my two cents.