First, let me say that not only would an attack on Iran be in violation of International Law and the U.S. Constitution, but also contrary to the best interests of the U.S. And I support a resulution that states that Bushco has no authority to do so.
But let's assume that you think like the neocon wingnuts that currently reside at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. You believe in preemptive strikes, teaching them a lesson, and all the good things that such thinking brings.
Well two stories out this week in the Financial Times explains that actually Iran is having quite a bit of trouble and the reformists are coalescing. The statement today by Gates that the US has no options in Iran and there is no value in opening up a dialogue with them is totally wrong.
Details below.
The story in todays Financial Times involves purely economic issues. But these issues resonate with opportunity. Iran President to present budget
The Iranian President, Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, presents his 2nd annual budget to the Iranian Parliament on Sunday. He is facing strong criticism over economic mismanagement and excessive reliance on oil revenues. The recent poor showing of his allies in December local elections has given succor to his critics.
The Iranian stock exchange is down, inflation was over 15% in 2006.
Some in close contact with economic ministries in Iran say they are in a state of chaos. In October, Mr Ahmadi-Nejad restructured the Planning and Management Organisation (PMO), disrupting its role in drawing up the budget. Baztab, a conservative website, this week said the PMO was in "hibernation".
"The government’s monthly reports on expenditure and revenue to the Majlis [parliament] are not done professionally and are invariably late," said a leading business journalist. "The main budget is 85 per cent transparent, but the 15 per cent contains vital information, like the level of current deficit."
Even though Iran is the 2nd largest producer in OPEC, its reliance on oil revenue has increased as the economy has tanked, causing the goverment to raid its Oil Stabilization Fund, which is held for infrastructure and as a hedge against oil price drops.
Oil revenues now make up 70% of the Iranian budget, up from 60%, and the price of oil has dropped 15%.
While the budget is likely to pass, even if amended, this is unlikely to stem the criticism.
The president’s critics are discussing options like parliamentary impeachment or whether Ayatollah Khamenei, who holds the final word on important matters, should impose ministers.
The economic problems do not bode well. THis is one country where sanctions may have a real affect. They hold elections. And people are expected to vote their pocket books. But like many in the U.S. who are concerned that their nation is led by a wacko extremist, the opposition in Iran is becoming similarly concerned.
As reported earlier in the week,
Parliament is in uproar, accusing the government of gross mismanagement as prices and unemployment rise. But such a dramatic move as impeachment – unknown in the Islamic Republic’s 28 years – would need Ayatollah Khamenei’s backing to succeed.
"Ayatollah Khamenei still doesn’t believe the president should go," said a former Iranian diplomat. "And if the international crisis becomes more serious, the leader would not allow an impeachment that would make Iran look weak domestically."
Coalition of the concerned grows in Iran
Reformers within Iran are starting to form in concern with the present direction, including concern about the Iranian nuclear program.
"New informal regroupings are being formed based on concern . . . over the fate of the country and the regime," said Behzad Nabavi, a leading reformist. "A common sense of danger [is overcoming] differences over democracy and cultural issues."
Meanwhile, the U.S. Secretary of Defense announced today that
U.S. has few Options to halt Iran nuclear plans
Gates also stated that now is not the time to talk to the Iranians.
"Frankly, right at this moment there’s really nothing the Iranians want from us, and so in any negotiation right now we would be the supplicant," Mr. Gates told reporters after talks with allies in the Persian Gulf.
Well golly gee, maybe the Iranians would like peace, security, and an end to their economic sanctions so they could get their economy back on track?
No, probably not a good idea, that might lead to peace in the Middle East.
The sad truth is that the neocons in the executive branch don't know how to listen to anyone. They still can't hear the United States voters, the ISG, or the Generals in the military. So how can anyone expect them to hear their hated evil enemies?