The usual explanation given for the poor performance of Senator Clinton here at DailyKos is that the site is full of "progressives" -- and she isn't progressive. How else can we reconcile her low poll numbers here with her being the frontrunner in "scientific" polls, other than by postulating some element that preserves the randomness of the poll?
There's another possibility, though. Are the polls creating the phenomenon they are trying to study? If so, is there some other kind of experimental design that will let us judge the level of support the Senator has?
Let's say we were to ask a bunch of Americans who the greatest mathematician of all time is. One time, when such a study was actually conducted, the person receiving the most responses was: Albert Einstein. Who wasn't a mathematician. Clearly, the poll had, by forcing some sort of choice, gotten people to say something that they wouldn't have said otherwise. They didn't even consider that the question was a question, really, until it was asked.
I spoke to a city councilman the other day -- who said he supported Clinton. However, that was the only person he knew that was running. The fact that she hasn't announced she was running yet wasn't part of his belief structure -- he really thought that she had. This is not an ignorant man -- he's on a medical school faculty.
People don't want to look ignorant, so they produce some sort of plausible answer to a question. Drilling down, as other names were produced of figures that he knew, he preferred them to Sen. Clinton.
Now, look at what DIDN'T HAPPEN. He didn't walk up to me and say, "boy, sure are glad we get to vote for Sen. Clinton"! Voting isn't so much a belief as it is an action -- and polls are (or should be) studies trying to predict future actions, not beliefs (which are the kind of things that can easily be created by the very study that is trying to learn about them).
Before him, I had spoken to exactly ONE person who supported Sen. Clinton (her reasoning was that she found the Senator's husband "hot").
This is in contrast to the Kerry support I saw about six months out from Iowa last time around. There was an active contigent of labor people who volunteered the fact of their Kerry support to me.
So, let's use the power of the Internet just a little bit. I think, from the number of diaries that are published about fights with in-laws and neighbors, that we do talk to our fellow man about politics, in meatspace as well as online. So, if this support is out there, we should observe it in that fashion. With that in mind, take the poll ...