It's become increasingly clear that the US has placed a central role in propelling Ethiopa to attacK the Islamist government in Somalia. This backing by the United States has essentially set the policy the United States will pursue in the horn of Africa. Proxy states will creates the vacum-like conditions in which the United States special forces can act with impunity.
It is worth examining some of the news out of Somalia to understand the trajectory of the United State's continuing actions in the region given our previous history in Somalia, and simply to understand the nature of the foreign policy being pursued by this Administration. The concern in Somalia of course under the Islamists was that they would provide some sort of safe-haven for all sorts of militants or terrorists, although it is not clear to what extent this was happening, especially in comparison a country like, say, Pakistan who has had their intelligence community accused of actively aiding the resurgent Taliban.
For an examination of the news coming out of Somalia, and humble analysis, jump below the fold!
The image of Magadishu has been permanently captured in the American psyche by the events in October if 1993. I was too young to have a clear understanding or even real memory of the incident, but of course the events helped set the tone for US actions in Africa and around the world for the next decade. Not another Somalia became synonymous with disastrous US intervention. Operation Gothic Serpent became a dominant dynamic in US policy circles. I don't want to dwell on the last 14 or so years of Somali history, although perhaps that can be the subject of another diary. I'd like to examine the news coming out Somalia in the last month or so.
Ethiopia launched air strikes against Somalia on December 24, hitting Islamist targets across the country, and they officially declared war the next day, on December 25.
As early as December 22 however, the Deutsche Presse-Agentur was reporting
Some 50 tanks and other armoured vehicles as well as helicopters
reportedly moved towards the battlefront on Friday, according to
local media. Ethiopia has continuously denied any presence in
Somalia, except for a few hundred soldiers training the government
forces.
I apologize, I am culling most of this material from LexisNexis Academic, so it is difficult to link to, but I will do my best to source for you guys.
On December 25th the New York Times news roundup laid the stakes bare for all to see, saying
Ethiopia officially plunged into war with Somalia's Islamist forces, bombing targets inside Somalia and putting Ethiopian ground troops on the march in an escalation that could turn Somalia's internal crisis into a religious conflict that engulfs the entire Horn of Africa.
The details of this conflict are of course fairly well-known and easily accessible for a casual reader, so I will not be examining the war blow by blow, but rather looking at some of the material that was missed, or did not hit the US news cycle.
On December 27th, the Deutsche Presse-Agentur reported that the United States was viewing the actions by Somalia as a legitimate action in their interest, saying
"Ethiopia has genuine security concerns with regard to
developments within Somalia and has provided support at the request
of the legitimate governing authority," a State Department
spokeswoman said.
The US has been in regular contact with the Ethiopian government
and has urged it "to exercise maximum restraint ... in Somalia and to
ensure the protection of civilians," the spokeswoman said.
Perhaps most surprising however was the half a sentence at the end of the article, wherein it referenced a report by the UN that claimed that "some 10 countries were somehow meddling in the country's affairs."
It did not take long for other countries to weigh in on the conflict, and on December 28th in an interview with ERI-TV the president of Eritrea, and a member of a prominent Christian aristocratic family did just that. The following is from a Global News Wire article on this interview
Regarding the situation in Somalia, President Isayas noted that over the past 15 years the country was not a united entity, and hence the Somali people saying enough to disunity were savouring the long-awaited peace and stability. Thus, this created threat to the TPLF [Tigray People's Liberation Front, dominant party with in Ethiopian ruling coalition] regime.
Indicating that the situation witnessed in Somalia is not a new Islamic philosophy but a choice the people made to establish a united Somalia, the president noted that the TPLF regime and the US are resorting to different ploys to drag back the Somalis to the previously existing instability alleging such a state of affairs was 'tantamount to terrorism'.
The current war in Somalia unleashed by those forces that stood against the emergence of a united Somalia emanates from weakness, fear, panic and not might and as such it could not be said that everything has been finalized through unilateral bluster, the president noted. He further underscored that the invasion of Somalia is not spontaneous but a long time and well organized plan initiated by the Washington administration.
While both Ethiopia and Eritrea are both ruled by Christians, Eritrea's weighing in on the side of the Islamists in this conflict may stem from residual anger regarding the war Ethiopia and Eritrea fought from 1998 to 2000. Meles Zenawi, the prime minister of Ethiopia is the same leader who was in power during the Ethiopia/Eritrea conflict, and has been a central figure in conflicts between Islamists in the past.
On December 28th Mogadishu fell to Ethiopian troops, and it is at this point in the diary that I would like to fast-forward to January 8th.
This was the day the United States began using the power vacuum they had opened in Somalia, with a telling assault by the Special Forces. The New York Times reported that
The Special Forces attack is the first military action in Somalia that Pentagon officials have acknowledged since American troops departed the lawless country in the wake of the infamous ''Black Hawk Down'' episode in 1993, when 18 American soldiers were killed in street fighting in Mogadishu.
These air strikes killed approximately 30 people, and their efficacy has not been established. These airstrikes were conducted near the border of Kenya, and the next day as the Asia Africa Intelligence Wire reported, the foreign minister of Kenya was forced to deny that Kenya was complicit with the United States in the conflict.
It is with this in mind that I would like to fast forward a few news cycles to the events of today and yesterday. It is difficult to see the news out of Somalia yesterday as anything other than the possible beginning of a homegrown insurgency in Somalia. Allafrica reported that
Gunfire exchanges have taken place in north of the capital on Saturday between Ethiopian troops and unknown gunmen.
Witnesses told Shabelle that number of Ethiopian troops backed by tanks were passing by the main road of north of the capital when they were attacked by the gunmen. The skirmishes lasted half an hour
The other fascinating news today came out of Reuters, who reported
A freelance journalist said on Sunday he had seen U.S. troops on the ground in south Somalia working with Ethiopian forces hunting fugitive Islamists.
"They were Americans, I have no doubt," the journalist said, referring to helicopters he saw overhead and personnel he bumped into with Ethiopian soldiers at a military base.
Rumours have swirled for days that U.S. personnel were inside Somalia since a Jan. 8 air strike aimed at al Qaeda suspects believed to be among the Islamists.
Whether this particular truth has any veracity may not matter, because it's very likely that there are at the least Special Forces operating in Somalia at the moment.
As a final thought to chew on, Immanuel Wallerstein, a researcher at Yale provided a damning view of the conflict, saying
The Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Meles Zenawi, must have been studying the magnificent successes of the U.S. preemptive invasion of Iraq and Israel's recent foray into Lebanon. He has clearly decided to emulate them. His argument is exactly that which was given by George W. Bush and Ehud Olmert. We must attack our neighbor because we have to keep Islamic terrorists from pursuing their jihad and attacking us.
In each case, the invader was sure of his military superiority and of the fact that the majority of the population would hail the attackers as liberators. Zenawi asserts he is cooperating in the U.S. worldwide struggle against terrorism. And indeed, the United States has offered not only its intelligence support but has sent in both its air force and units of special troops to assist the Ethiopians.
Once again the United States has helped create a failed state, so we may pursue our own short-sighted and selfish interests in finding al-Qaeda operatives of questionable value.