If there was ever a poster child for how redistricting should not be done, it is the Congressional district map for Pennsylvania. It was designed to elect 14 Republicans and 5 Democrats (everything except for PA-1/2/11/12/14 was drawn to favor a GOPer) in a state that voted for Bill Clinton twice and Al Gore in 2000. It was designed by Republicans for Republicans.
The map was so complex, that in order to draw it, the GOP used a mainframe at Carnegie Mellon University to input all of the demographic information. The result is a district that only redistricting junkies and GOPers love. But the map has backfired on GOPers. It never lived up to its potential in the first place.
In 2006, Pennsylvania was ground zero for the wave. Democrats picked up 4 seats (the 4th, 7th, 8th, and 10th) and threw out Rick Santorum. Not bad.
This diary:
1)Looks at what the map was drawn to do.
2)How it turned out to function in reality.
3)Looks forward to see who's vulnerable.
More following the jump.
The Map's History
First, a reference picture of the .
This map was drawn to accomplish several tasks:
1)The map paired four Western PA Dems into a pair of seats: John Murtha and Frank Mascara in the 12th, and William Coyne and Mike Doyle into the 14th. Coyne chose to retire, and Doyle took over the 14th (Pittsburgh City Center). Murtha defeated in the primary; the result was not surprising since PA GOPers wanted Murtha to continue bringing in the pork and had drawn the district accordingly. This packing was justified by Republicans as necessary because Pennsylvania lost two seats in reapportionment from 21 to 19.
At the same time, Melissa Hart's district was made slightly more GOP friendly, although she declined to make it a safe district, an option supposedly given to her. State Senator Tim Murphy drew himself a lean Republican swing district designed to favor him in the South Pittsburgh suburbs. Phil English got a district with territory he was comfortable in.
2)Next, the map put then 6th District incumbent Tim Holden into a heavily Republican 17th District drawn for incumbent George W. Gekas in Central Pennsylvania.
Don Sherwood got a new 10th District that had Democratic Scranton pulled out of it and replaced with much more friendly territory. He had good reason, having earlier narrowly survived a tough challenge from Patrick Casey (Sen. Bob Casey's brother). All of the "T" incumbents got safe seats.
3)In suburban Philadelphia, the 13th district packed Democratic incumbents into it, Bob Borski and Joe Hoeffel. Borski graciously bowed out of what would have been a bitter primary, which back then made life easier for Hoeffel. The 13th was designed in such a way that the Democratic incumbent (Republicans assumed Hoeffel would win) Joe Hoeffel would have a heck of a time due to concerns about Section 8 Housing. He took in swaths of Northeast Philadelphia, while at the same time losing chunks of his Montgomery County base. It was described as the "half urban, half suburban monster".
Like Murphy, State Senator Jim Gerlach drew himself what was thought to be a lean Republican swing district, the new 6th. Curt Weldon and Jim Greenwood each got districts that were marginally Democratic, but they were both long term incumbents well established in their bases.
This super complex map proved from the outset to be far too clever to actually work. On election night 2002, George W. Gekas lost to Tim Holden in the 17th, and Joe Hoeffel held onto the 13th. Murphy and Gerlach won the districts they had drawn for themselves. But all in all, it was evident from the start that the GOP had probably drawn themselves a district and a half too far.
In 2004, Greenwood retired, making the 8th open, but the Republicans were able to handpick his replacement, Mike Fitzpatrick, who managed to win despite being far too right on abortion for the rapidly more Democratic 8th, a classic soccer mom suburban district. Gerlach narrowly survived a challenge in his hand drawn 6th, which was in reality the foxhole that the 13th was supposed to be. Hoeffel ran for the US Senate and lost, but Democrat Allyson Schwartz was elected easily.
In 2006, Pennsylvania decidedly rejected the GOP. Not only did Bob Casey crush Rick Santorum, he led wire to wire and the result was never in doubt. Dems won two of the three GOP held suburban Philly districts. Curt Weldon collapsed into a puddle of sleaze and corruption at the end, and Joe Sestak won fairly handily. But even before the scandals hit, Weldon was on shaky ground, having not had to run a real campaign since he won the seat back in the '80s. He couldn't shake the rust. In the 8th District, Iraq War vet Patrick Murphy narrowly defeated Mike Fitzpatrick. In one of the night's two shockers, Jim Gerlach somehow held on against Lois Murphy; I still haven't gotten a clear explaination for what happened in this one.
Don Sherwood lost his thought to be unlose-able 10th District to Fighting Dem Chris Carney. Choking your mistress will do that to you.
But the biggest shock of the night (to me anyways) was Melissa Hart losing in the 4th District to Jason Altmire. Hart was widely thought to be the rising star in the Pennsylvania GOP House legislation. A lot of rumors had her running in 2010 for Governor or as Arlen Specter's eventual replacement. She even got grudging levels of respect among some Dems I spoke to both in Washington and in her district.
How Gerlach could win and Hart could lose on the same night was baffling. Both are Democratic districts for sure (ignore the Presidential numbers in PA-4, Kerry and Gore had lousy optics in the district). I guess I chalk it up to two factors: 1)Gerlach knew he was going to be a target 24 months before the election and had prepared accordingly; conversely Hart became something of a target 24 days before the election when it became apparent a wave was coming and wasn't as well prepared AND 2)PA-6 is a wealthier district that globalization hasn't hit nearly so hard as PA-4, which is much more working class and industrial.
What The Map Means For The Future
So, with all of that said, having won 4 seats what is our next move in Pennsylvania. First off, the most important thing we need to do is make sure that Chris Carney get's re-elected in the 10th. It is one of the most Republican districts in the Northeast, and gave Bush 60% of the vote last time around. A lot of people think by just looking at the numbers in Altmire's 4th that he's going to face a challenge. But those numbers are hugely misleading. The 4th is a traditionally Democratic district, and the previous Dem. incumbent, Ron Klink, was never seriously challenged. Altmire's a good fit for it. The 7th and 8th are lean Democratic swing districts, and both Sestak and Murphy are among the highest profiled Freshmen members.
Among the Democratic seats we have here's how I rank them:
Safe Democratic
PA-1/2: Philadelphia city core seats with strong incumbents
PA-11: Kanjorski's a long term incumbent in this Democratic district.
PA-14: Pittsburgh city core, Doyle's a very competent guy
Likely Democratic
PA-12: As long as Murtha's around its his. If he retires, it has some potential to be competitive. In fairness, this falls inbetween Safe and Likely.
PA-13: Allyson Schwartz is a much stronger incumbent than Hoeffel was, and frankly, I think she is going to be Arlen Specter's successor. Its the most Democratic of the four suburban Philadelphia seats, and even in good years like 2002, its been GOP-averse.
Leans Democratic
PA-4: Discussed above. A very distant *#2* interms of difficulty to hold
PA-7/8: Discussed above. PA-8 is *#3* while PA-7 is *#4*
PA-17: Tim Holden might be the most talented Dem in the delegation and hasn't been seriously challenged since he won in 2002. As long as he's the incumbent, he's a good bet for re-election. But it is drawn to be a GOP district. In a bad year for us against a competent GOPer (of which there seem to be few in the 17th fortunately), Holden could lose here. But as long as he's here-*#5*
Toss-Up
PA-10: By far the most Republican seat we hold. If we can get Carney re-elected next cycle, he can probably hold on into redistricting, where its thought that Dems (if they can) will shift more Democratic territory, perhaps the State College area, into his district and make it less of a foxhole. *#1* defensive priority
Now, the GOP districts:
Safe Republican
PA-5/9/16/19: Hardcore GOP seats in the T. Unless these incumbents are doing their own mistress choking, forget about them.
Likely Republican
PA-15: Dent is probably the smartest incumbent that the GOP House Delegation has. Although his district is dead even, as long as he's the incumbent, he should hold it. If he runs for the Senate or Governor, it immediately moves to tossup status. I still don't get why we didn't put more effort into this when it was open in '04. Therefore he should be considered the *#4* target on the Dems list.
PA-3: Phil English is a long term GOP incumbent, well established in his district with a nice cushy seat on Ways and Means. On paper, he looks great. But I can't help but wonder if he's anothe Curt Weldon waiting to happen. He hasn't been seriously challenged since '96, so his campaign skills are probably rusty. His district is about a dead even GOP/Dem split but has elected Republicans (Tom Ridge was the previous incumbent). Still, worth a "probing attack" against a decent challenger to see how vulnerable he really is; his 54-42 victory against a weak challenger does not strike me as terribly impressive. Therefore *#3* on our target list.
Leans Republican
None
Toss-Up
PA-18: Now, I'm about to make a controversial argument. Jim Gerlach should not be our top target in 2008. Tim Murphy should be. Why?
1)Pittsburgh is a helluva lot cheaper media market than Philadelphia.
2)As its drawn, the 18th is so spread out that Murphy really doesn't have a political base like Gerlach has in Chester County.
3)Murphy hasn't been seriously challenged since he got elected in '02, and even then he won pretty easily. Gerlach, on the other hand, is like Teflon.
4)Murphy is under federal investigation for using Congressional staffers for campaign work. He also has notorious staff turnover levels, and those who worked for him usually don't describe him so favorably. When KDKA-TV news reporter Andy Sheehan confronted him with the allegations, Murphy seized the documents (Youtube video) Sheehan had, saying they were illegally obtained. Gerlach ain't under federal indictment
5)Like in PA-4, don't look at the Kerry/Bush numbers. They are horribly misleading. Local Democrats do much better than national ones in the district.
So, PA-18 and Tim Murphy should be our *#1 target* next cycle. I think the best candidate to challenge Murphy would be State Senator Sean Logan (D-Monroeville). Some will say that Barbara Hafer should be our candidate, but she played Hamlet last time, and passed. Had she run, she probably would have won. She might also be a bit too liberal for the district. Another possibility might be former State Senator Alan Kukovich who's political base is in Westmoreland County
PA-6: All that isn't to say that Gerlach isn't vulnerable. I think Dems should recruit a top tier candidate to run against Gerlach. That candidate should not be Lois Murphy; if she couldn't win last time, she's not going to be able to. We should try and get someone who can cut into his Chester County base. Its apparent that the Lower Merion part of the 6th hates Gerlach's guts, so picking a Montgomery County based candidate probably doesn't do us much good. But the 6th, for any Republican, should be a foxhole for the forseeable future.