I love polls. I'm addicted to them, and even though the primaries are still several months away, I need my daily shot of polls, or I'll go into serious withdrawal.
So, that's why I was happy to see several new ones today. I'll stick to the Democratic primary ones.
First of all, ARG polled IA, NH and SC. 600 likely caucus goers / primary voters, conducted 9/26 through 9/29. The previous results are all listed here for Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina
The short results are (August results in parentheses):
Iowa:
Clinton 30 (28)
Obama 24 (23)
Edwards 19 (20)
New Hampshire:
Clinton 41 (37)
Obama 22 (17)
Edwards 10 (14)
South Carolina:
Clinton 41 (32)
Obama 30 (21)
Edwards 7 (24)
In general, you can say that Clinton and Obama have a good trend, while Edwards has a trend that is not so good. Look at that drop in SC. That's not good. Can we confirm any of this with another recent poll? Well, Rasmussen polled SC. The numbers are (last month's numbers in parentheses):
Clinton 43 (38)
Obama 30 (30)
Edwards 10 (13)
Comparing this with the ARG poll, it seems that their previous poll with Edwards at 24% may have been an outlier. So, while his drop may not have been that dramatic, it does seem to confirm that his trend is downward.
What does this all mean? Maybe not much. The primaries are 3 months from now, and a lot can still happen. But the campaigns who are not moving, or moving downward, will be scratching their heads to see how they can make a positive move.
For more information on polls from people who know far more about them than I ever will, visit pollster.com. A blog worth reading that keeps up with the polls is Campaign Diaries. Lastly, Steve Singiser always writes good poll diaries.