We've got a long way to go on this one.
Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/15-17. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)
If the 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you to reelect Susan Collins, would you consider voting for another candidate, or would you vote to replace Collins?
Reelect 55
Consider 20
Replace 21
If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Tom Allen, the Democrat, and Susan Collins, the Republican?
Collins (R) 56
Allen (D) 33
This one won't be easy. But Iraq will loom large, and hopefully will work to peel away Collins' significant Democratic and Independent support. Crosstabs are below the fold. I'll be commissioning periodic polls of this race to track our progress. Allen needs to push Collins below 50 percent within the next 4-6 months for this race to become top-tier. He's got the material to work with.
Collins enables Bush and his war, and will continue enabling war-mongering Republicans if she is reelected. No matter how much voters may personally like her, that is the reality.
Research 2000 is an independent polling outfit that does work for newspapers all over the country. This isn't a "partisan" poll or pollster. And given the results of this poll, I think that speaks for itself.
On the web: Tom Allen for Senate
MAINE POLL RESULTS - OCTOBER 2007
The Research 2000 Maine Poll was conducted from October 15 through October 17, 2007. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 287 (48%)
Women 313 (52%)
Democrats 186 (31%)
Republicans 169 (28%)
Independents/Other 245 (41%)
18-29 91 (15%)
30-44 185 (31%)
45-59 205 (34%)
60+ 119 (20%)
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Susan Collins? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):
VERY VERY
FAV FAV UNFAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 22% 36% 24% 9% 9%
MEN 21% 35% 27% 9% 8%
WOMEN 23% 37% 21% 9% 10%
DEMOCRATS 15% 26% 37% 14% 8%
REPUBLICANS 28% 44% 16% 6% 6%
INDEPENDENTS 24% 38% 20% 7% 11%
18-29 19% 34% 27% 11% 9%
30-44 25% 38% 21% 7% 9%
45-59 21% 35% 25% 9% 10%
60+ 22% 37% 23% 9% 9%
QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Susan Collins is doing as U.S. Senator? (If approve or disapprove, ask if it is strongly or not):
STRG STRG
APP APP DISAPP DISAPP NOT SURE
ALL 21% 35% 26% 10% 8%
MEN 20% 33% 19% 11% 7%
WOMEN 22% 37% 21% 9% 9%
DEMOCRATS 13% 24% 32% 16% 7%
REPUBLICANS 28% 46% 12% 6% 3%
INDEPENDENTS 22% 36% 18% 9% 11%
18-29 18% 21% 32% 13% 7%
30-44 25% 26% 37% 8% 8%
45-59 20% 23% 34% 10% 8%
60+ 20% 19% 36% 9% 9%
QUESTION: If the 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you to reelect Susan Collins, would you consider voting for another candidate, or would you vote to replace Collins?
REELECT CONSIDER REPLACE NOT SURE
ALL 55% 20% 21% 4%
MEN 53% 21% 23% 3%
WOMEN 57% 19% 19% 5%
DEMOCRATS 38% 26% 34% 2%
REPUBLICANS 72% 11% 7% 10%
INDEPENDENTS 57% 21% 20% 2%
18-29 52% 22% 24% 2%
30-44 58% 19% 17% 6%
45-59 54% 20% 21% 5%
60+ 56% 20% 21% 3%
QUESTION: If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Tom Allen, the Democrat, and Susan Collins, the Republican?
COLLINS ALLEN UNDECIDED
ALL 56% 33% 11%
MEN 55% 35% 10%
WOMEN 57% 31% 12%
DEMOCRATS 37% 54% 9%
REPUBLICANS 75% 11% 14%
INDEPENDENTS 57% 33% 10%
18-29 53% 35% 12%
30-44 59% 30% 11%
45-59 55% 34% 11%
60+ 57% 33% 10%
QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as President?
APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE
ALL 28% 71% 1%
MEN 31% 68% 1%
WOMEN 25% 74% 1%
DEMOCRATS 7% 92% 1%
REPUBLICANS 71% 28% 1%
INDEPENDENTS 15% 84% 1%
18-29 23% 76% 1%
30-44 35% 65% -%
45-59 26% 73% 1%
60+ 26% 72% 2%