I'm a junky, you're a junky, we're all junkies. It's impossible to ignore this poll, that poll, or the the new FEC numbers. How big is Hillary's lead today? Is Barack Obama surging? Who will Dennis Kucinich marry next? How would Al Gore do if he did do it?
In our addiction to the information of the present, though, we lose perspective on the past. It's worth stepping back, from time to time, and remembering that the one thing we can be sure about it is this: between now and Iowa, things will change -- and probably by a lot.
So please, sit back and relax. Step inside, and I'll tell you a story -- and a heart-warming one, at that.
It's October 2003, and the question is: who will win Iowa, and with it, a hammer-lock on the Democratic nomination?
Everybody is gaga over an inspirational medical doctor named Howard Dean. His fundraising success has been simply phenomenal; we've never seen anything like it before.
Dr. Dean is coming off an amazing Q3 in which he raised as much as his top four Democratic rivals -- combined. In fact, he raised nearly as much as the rest of the Democratic field, and is blowing away the competition in the money primary.
Dean: $14.8 million Q3, $25.4 million overall.
Kerry: $3.9 million in Q3, $17.2 million overall.
Gephardt: $3.8 million in Q3, $13.7 million overall.
Lieberman: $3.6 million in Q3, $11.8 million overall.
Clark: $3.5 million in Q3, $3.5 million overall.
Edwards: $2.6 million in Q3, $14 million overall.
Nationally, the polling is encouraging for Dr. Dean, though mixed. In a Zogby poll, he leads the field, but in a Quinnipiac poll, he is tied with Joe Lieberman, and trails Wesley Clark, who has the most support.
Real trouble, however, looms for the good doctor. The trouble is easy to see – if only one would look at the polls.
Despite his growing national support, Dean faces a much closer contest in Iowa. In three polls of Iowa, he is tied for the lead in one, and second in two.
KCCI
Dick Gephardt – 26%
Howard Dean – 26%
John Kerry – 15%
Zogby
Gephardt – 22%
Dean – 21%
Kerry – 9%
SurveyUSA
Gephardt – 27%
Dean – 22%
Kerry – 15%
Gephardt is clearly Dean’s only competition in Iowa. John Kerry is barely on the radar and John Edwards is off it entirely.
If Dean can pull off a win in Iowa, he’ll have the nomination locked up. Even though he’s trailing in Iowa, the numbers are not disastrous for him, however: if he loses to Gephardt, Dean can dismiss Gephardt as a "favored son" from Missouri, limiting his rival’s bounce.
With New Hampshire next up, Dean will be poised for a major rebound.
In New Hampshire, a late October poll puts him on top of the Democratic field with 33%, compared to John Kerry’s 21% and Gephardt’s 4%. He leads in every other poll taken in the state so far in October – with his smallest lead at 6%.
Of course, here’s what actually happened in Iowa:
John Kerry – 38%
John Edwards – 32%
Howard Dean – 18%
Dick Gephardt – 11%
And New Hampshire:
John Kerry – 39%
Howard Dean – 26%
Wesley Clark – 13%
John Edwards – 12%
Peace,
Patel1946
George Orwell wrote Politics and the English Language in 1946