I have to admit, I was suprized when I read this from
reuters (also
ABC) few days ago:
A presidential task force said in a report on Thursday that the people of Puerto Rico should decide in a series of votes whether the island should become the 51st U.S. state or an independent nation.
And the first thing that popped into my head was this: What's the scam?
Puerto Rico's status hasn't been an issue since 1998 when the population voted,
for the third time to not change their status. The Independence option has yet to break 5% popularity.
Well, actual change seems like it would take a long burocratic process, all but likely to be an issue in 2008 or later, rather than 2006.
The task force urged the U.S. Congress within a year to set a date for a plebiscite in which the people of Puerto Rico would be asked whether they want to change the island's commonwealth status.
If they choose to change the island's status, Congress should set another vote on statehood or independence, the task force said. (emphasis mine)
And than, after all this, we have to go through the constitutional provisions for admitting a new state into the union.
Call me a cynic, but I don't believe Bush or the Republican party have any intention of letting Spanish-speaking Puerto Rico's 51st star, not to mention their would-be two liberal Senators and six congressmen to mess up their little party.
So, what then, is the purpose of all this? And how does this relate to the 2006 election, keeping in mind the "commission" insisted that congress set a date within one year of the findings (December 2005.)
I will go out on a limb here and assume this is a political move and not genuine. If you need reasons, the first should be that no one in Puerto Rico is seriously pushing for status change and the second should be that this was last voted on in 1998. Furthermore a 1999 referendum on Independence failed miserably:
Puerto Rico's independence movement is small, with fewer than 3 percent of voters favoring independence in a 1999.
So, really the question is between statehood or no statehood. And I believe, even if the people of Puerto Rico vote for statehood, Congress is not likely to allow it. But they don't have to face that fact until after two votes for which the Congress itself sets the date and then a congressional vote which can be blocked with various means.
This tells me, it's the issue or appearance of this vote than can possibly be used for political purposes. It's a little like Bush's half-ass "backing" of a constitutional amendment to ban abortion or to ban stem cell research. He'll say he's for it knowing that it'll never happen.
That having been said, how can this issue be used to benefit BushCo? The answer may be obvious if I rephrase the question: How can photos of Bush speaking in front of thousands of cheering hispanics be used to benefit BushCo?
Yes, that's the scam, IMHO. Yes... another "Democracy is god's gift to man"-like chain of speeches giving "choice" to the "great people of Puerto Rico," to be "masters of their own fate." In other words, an issue with no substance or opposition, that puts Bush introducing whoever the local Republican candidate is in front of supprotive cheering Hispanics, where he gets to crack jokes in Spanish and talk about his love of Latin Jazz.
That kind of media play sits well, not only with Puerto Ricans who form significant voting blocks in places like New York (read Hillary Clinton) and Florida; but also is unquestionably positive PR with Mexican-American, Cuban and other Hispanic constituencies who have nothing to do with Puerto Rico.
Of course, there's a possiblity of backlash from the xenophobic wing of the "base" but that's why Bush is wading cautiously. He has put some distance (i.e. plausible deniability) between himself and this "commission" (whom he appointed BTW) before he embraces the issue fully.
It'll be interesting to see the framing of this issue in the coming months.