So I have been somewhat closely following the Mississippi Governor race from my dorm room in Washington D.C. and there is a part of me that says Democratic John Eaves Junior has a real shot at the race on Tuesday. As far as I can tell there is no Public polling in this race. So it is all mostly guess work. Follow me for the guess work
It is important to remember that in 2003 at the height of The Repblican Power, Republican Haley Barbour was only able to win 53% against incumbent Ronnie Musgrove. Democratic Performance in non-Presidential is often better. There are also any number of other factors to consider. The Democratic Candidate John Eaves, do to personal wealth, has spent roughly two million dollars which I am guessing buys a decent amount of Mississippi T.V. He is also targeting Evangelical Voters, by playing up his faith and playing up his pro-life pro-family e.t.c. views and advocating for school prayer. The Democratic Base in Mississippi also has depth as John Kerry did win 40% of the vote in Mississippi. Also do to a very well contested primary. There is a African American Candidate for Issurance Commissioner who after defeating an Incumbent Conservative Democratic, might drive African America votes. The Democratic candidate for Governor also receive nearly 316,000 votes in the Democratic Primary, or already a little more than 2/3 of what winning candidate will get based on the 03 result. None of this would be very persuasive except that Incumbent Governor Haley Barbour has bothered to run two attack on his challenger, a signal that he is a least slightly worried. Barbour’s family contracts for Hurricane Reconstruction and Eaves pumping yet more money into his campaign are other wild cards. In short days with six days to go, you one would just assume Barbour would win and relatively comfortably and yet, there is a part of me that says we might score the biggest upset ever and knock the Republicans so far down as to be unimaginable. I don’t think it, but I do hope it. Anyway, once you are turn on election night with the Kentucky blow out, turn your eyes south, you might just see something amazing.