Kerry has yet to go all-out negative on BC04. When do you think he will and how will he do it? The upside to this argument is that when people finally have their doubts about Bushco articulated by effective ads, it will reduce Bush's approval and favorability ratings even further and make it that much harder for Bush to stage a comeback. The downside to this approach is that negative campaigning damps turnout. And higher turnout is always better for Democrats.
What are some of the issues Kerry should go negative on, either with his own money or through 527 surrogates? Is it over the line for a Dem surrogate group to imply in an ad that Bush will reinstate the draft if he's elected?
I also wonder if BC04 aren't spending all their negative ammunition against Kerry now. Their approach is to sling as much dirt and see what sticks (one of Karl Rove's signature m.o.s), but does negative advertising provide diminished returns over time? Will the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth (sic) still be effective with undecided voters in mid-October? I wanted to raise some of these issues, since Kerry has yet to use this tool in any significant way so far in the campaign. In fact, you could argue that the negative ads by BC04 right now are an attempt to bait Kerry into going negative right now and spend his ammunition in late August rather than late October.