Update at 1am pacific time. Nov. 14... includes fascinating links with detailed analysis.
It strikes me that all hope of turning the election around before it is too late actually rests on the Nader recount in New Hampshire.
The recount of 11 wards (in 8 communities) in New Hampshire is expected to take place just before or just after Thanksgiving. Nader has alleged that "irregularities'' in the optical scanning voting machines appear to have inflated the totals that Bush should have gotten in several key states.
Cities and towns in New Hampshire all either use paper ballots or these optical scan ballots manufactured by the Diebold Corp., whose chief executives contributed to Bush's re-election.
The earliest this recount could begin is Nov. 24, the day before Thanksgiving Day. That's because the next two weeks are already packed with more than a dozen recounts of legislative races. The recount of votes in eight communities could take more than a day depending on how many teams of volunteers are assembled to help.
Ohio implications below the fold.
If the recount shows substatial difference between the original tally and the recount tally in Kerry's favor, it will open the floodgates to massive mainstream press interest. We are talkin about a statistically significant 40,000+ votes in this recount! The question will become whether paper-ballot counting machines gave Bush too many votes in other places.
Many will cite Stephen Freeman's exit poll analysis indicating that the chances of the exit polls being that wrong in Bush's favor in all the battleground states is 1 in 250 million.
They will also cite Colin Shea's analysis on the Zogby website which offer's a pollster analysis of the explanations for the discrepancy.
The mainstream interest and concern will create suspense around the Ohio recount. And all eyes will turn to Ohio, just about when Ken Blackwell is certifying the Ohio vote (Mr. Blackwell may want to have his lawyer's cell phone number handy.)... In Ohio, predominantly paper ballots have been cast, and many were counted with Diebold machines.
Here is the Ohio schedule...
Nov. 13 Boards of elections may begin official canvass of ballots(11 days after the election)
Nov. 17 Boards of elections must begin official canvass of ballots no later than this date (15 days after the election
Dec. 1 The official tallies are due at the Secretary of State's Office.
Dec. 3 The Secretary of State must certify the election under Ohio law.
An application for a recount must be filed not later than five days after official results are declared.
A petition contesting an election must be filed in the appropriate court within 15 days after the official results are declared, or within 10 days after the official results of a recount are declared.
If Nader succesfully challenges the integrity of the optical scanning machines, it will also give the Kerry campaign cover to throw its massive resources back into the recount effort, not only in Ohio but nation-wide. Their goal will be to question all paper-ballot counting machines' tallies. For PR reasons, they will need to make a dent in Bush's 3+ million popularl vote lead, and to question the legitimacy of the election throughout the country.
THIS ALSO BRINGS BACK INTO PLAY "SPOILED BALLOTS." In Ohio, over 50% of the 90,000+ spoiled ballots were cast in predominantly African-American precincts. Ohio has very clear ruled for assessing chads (two corners must be detached). There are millions of these nation-wide
Remember they don't have to prove how it was done... (althought some may point to this fascinating analysis by a clever kossak for clues). All they need is the legitimacy to assert that the machines miscounted and a reasonable certainty that there will be a big difference in the tally. Nader's recount effort - if it shows a big discrepancy - will give them that legitimacy.