My number one local priority for 2008 is the defeat of Ceasar Trunzo and installing a Democrat in the third SD. As Ceasar tumbles so too does the corrupt Joe Bruno! At 82 and with every indication he wants to run one more time, Ceasar cannot be a retail campaigner, his door to door and attending every event days are long gone and his district continues to change demographically beneath his fallen arches! It harkens the old biblical story in Exodus, "and the generations of Egypt passed and they knew not Joseph."
If Trunzo due to a change of heart or health were not to seek re-election for the seventeenth time, the Republican Bench beneath him is very sparse. Term limited CL, Cameron Alden, Brookhaven Councilman Tim Mazzei and maybe if he lives in the district, Islip Councilman Flotteron.
The Democratic Bench on the other hand is packed. The Senate seat is made up of two and a half Assembly seats with all three Assembly members being Democrats. Phil Ramos, Ginny Fields and Pat Eddington. On the County Legislative front there is Presiding Officer Bill Lindsey, Ricardo Montano and the assemblywomen Eddington's husband. Town Islip and Brookhaven Supervisors, Nolan and Foley are in district as are Councilmembers Parrington, Edwards and Bodkin. There is former CL and well known workforce housing advocate Jim Morgo who is high up in the Levy administration and two time candidate, former Deans Dozen and Levy administration member Jimmy Dahroug. Levy himself lives in the distrct but moving from CE to State Senate is considered a big step down.
With all these potential strong candidates and the knowledge that the NYS DSCC will be raising millions with the help of Governor Spitzer and the various Democratic controlled County organizations around the state, the Democratic nominee can expect a nearly million dollar effort in each of eleven vulnerable Republican held seats statewide.
Trunzo, Owen Johnson and Kemp Hannon are the three LI targets. Re-elected and former 2006 Peter King Congressional opponent Dave Mejias moved just days prior to the election from North Massapequa to Farmingdale where he remains in his CL district but now also lives within Hannon's district in time to comply with the qualifying residency rules. The DSCC and Nassau CE Tom Suozzi have reportedly promised big support to Mejias in that contest. The Democratic bench in Johnson's seat may be even stronger and the Republicans bench even weaker than in Trunzo's. Loaded with Babylon Townwide elected Democrats including Supervisor Belone, Assemblyman Sweeney, CL's Horsely and D"amaro plus two councilmembers. The Republican bench is non existant from the Babylon side with cross endorsed Indy member Lindsey Henry and in Islip there is assemblyman Boyle and CL Barraga.
Two Queens area Republicans and six upstate, four in the ever bluer Mid Hudson Valley, one in Rochester and one in Syracuse round out the eleven to be challenged. Democrats need only flip two seats to tie the Senate and allow Lt. Governor David patterson to organize the chamber for the Democrats. The Republican challenges to the 29 Democratic incumbents boils down to special election winner Greg Johnson in North Hempstead and not much else with any reality! The statewide party and its local out of power county parties are basically broke and every poll indicates that NYS is poised to give the National Democratic candidate a huge vote in a state where George Bush approval is below that of Atilla The Hun!
Back to Islip and the third SD. I believe that we need to support the candidate who has the most proven track record of having success at getting a sizeable chunk of Republicans and Independants (non-affiliated registered Blanks) to vote for them. This would cut out Ramos and Montano who win in one party Democratic majority minority seats. It would also cut out Dahroug who despite his early fundraising with 50K reported by his campaign in the bank has not broken above 44% in his prior two efforts. Nolan is out as he just won a full four year term with a Democratic majority in Islip and Parrington and Edwards are out because they were just first time elected with Nolan's coatails to thank and need more time in office to prove themselves to the electorate. I believe Foley would also pass as he would be totally leaving Brookhaven back to the Republicans who just gained a four to three control of the Town Council and would appoint the interim Supervisor if Foley were elected. This dwindles the list down to Ginny Fields, Chris Bodkin, Jim Morgo and the Eddington's. Mr. Eddington just narrowly won a tough re-election in a good Democratic district. While Mejias also won narrowly in Nassau, the difference is that Mejias represents a strong Republican area and is always in narrow races and state Republican Chair Joe Mondello threw every resource in the states limited arsenal at Mejias and still came up empty. If not for Spitzers incredibly poor handling of the driver licenses for undocumented immigrants issue, Mejias would not have had a wedge issue thrown at him and would have won comfortably. This has not been the case for the Eddington's although I feel at this point she would make the stronger State Senate candidate of the two.
But the District is overwhelmingly an Islip Town District and so the nominee would best be served by both party's coming from Islip. With that, Fields and Bodkin are the two leading candidates with Jim Morgo still in the mix. Morgo has demonstrated cold feet on several past opportunities to stand for public office as a candidate and the affordable housing work he has dedicated himself to seems to be his total passion and one best served locally at least from his take on the issue.
Left with a Fields/Bodkin most likely choice we know that both bring different strengths and weaknesses. Fields a former member of the Republican Party switched to the Democrats was elected and re-elected from a Republican district as County Legislator until her district was eliminated in gerrymandering. In fact her CL was the last of the 18 to have never elected a Democrat in the legislatures 38 year history. Ginny ran a strong but low funded campaign for Islip Supervisor but held incumbent Pete McGowan to 58% of the vote his lowest total of all his Townwide races. She than ran and won the vacated Steve Levy State Assembly seat after Levy was elected County Executive in 2003. She has twice been re-elected in this heavily Republican registration advantaged district. In the Assembly Fields has been a mainstream Democratic supporting issues important to organized labor, womens reproductive freedom, Gay rights and policies that favor middle class people like education, healthcare, environment and taxing policy.
Steve Bodkin was a 14 year Republican Councilman who switched to the Democratic party just one month prior to election day 2007. His term expires in 2009 and he indicated that he did not leave the Republican Party, the party left him on issues like healthcare and education. He also was embroiled in a major battle with Islip Republican Leader and incumbent State Senator Ceasar Trunzo. Trunzo stripped Bodkin of his Republican Town Committeeman position and attempted to deny him renomination to council in 2005. Bodkin got a running mate in current councilman Steve Flotteron and won the Republican primary defeating current assemblyman Boyle while winning the General Election against current councilman elect Parrington. He won first place leading Flotteron by over 3600 votes with the later clearly riding Bodkins coatails.
I believe that the State and Suffolk County and possibly Islip Town Democratic Committees would prefer Bodkin to Fields as she has often been viewed too much a maverick most recently with her strong appearance on Lou Dobbs show oppossing Governor Spitzers Driver License proposal. My take is that she quickly saved many local Democrats with her appearance from being seriously injured by the demogogueing Republicans who really have nothing positive to run for office on these days except to wait for Democrats like Spitzer to trip up. I think she has strengthened her position with the electorate. At this time I think Ginny would be the best candidate and that Bodkin can run for her open State Assembly seat.
Now, make no mistake, I can comfortably support each and every Democrat I named in the strong bench section of this report. Any of them would better serve the public over the current State Senator. My one exception being Phil Ramos who I hope will be seriously primaried in his majority minority assembly seat for his antics at holding the county taxpayers hostage on the sales tax revenue to punish CE Levy on his tough position regarding undocumented immigrants and local loitering enforcement. Montano and new Democrat Waldo Cabrerra could take on that task and there is local community support to challenge Ramos a former registered Republican and retired police detective who has been non commital on many social issues that progressives favor. But all this would be for yet another report.