Yep, I admit it. Kinda, sorta blew off the entire month of October. My bad. One day, I will blow a diary on listing the (count 'em!) EIGHTY THREE polls from the month of October.
As for November, there has been no shortage of numerical goodness...a total of 34 polls were conducted during the month of November, covering two dozen general election contests. Yes, I know there were a million more polls on primary contests, but this series limits itself to general election contests. Why? Because I like seeing my family, and if I included primary polls, I'd be typing this diary until New Years.
Follow me, if you will....FLIP!
The (obligatory) caveat:
For the general election contest, I am using the Clinton-Giuliani trial heats. Before Obama and Edwards supporters scream bloody murder, to say nothing of lurking Ron Paul supporters, there is a rationale. Rudy and HRC are the two candidates leading the national primary polling. They are also the two candidates with the highest name recognition. So...there.
AL-PRESIDENT: Giuliani (R) 48%, Clinton (D) 42%
Rasmussen polled here on 11/14. Giuliani's narrow lead is consistent with other deep Southern states. Clearly, the evangelical right has not completely bought into the Rudy thing. Whatever minimal gains Giuliani gives in the Connecticuts and New Jerseys of the world, he takes away by being very underwhelming in the red states.
AL-SENATE: Sessions (R) 62%, Davis-Figures (D) 30%
Also from the 11/14 Rasmussen poll. And the election junkies among the Kossacks whisper the name "Ron Sparks", and they wonder what might have been.
CT-PRESIDENT (2 polls): Clinton (D) 45.5%, Giuliani (R) 43.5%
Two pollsters look at the Nutmeg State: Quinnipiac (11/5) gave Clinton a one-point edge, while Rasmussen (11/7) gave Clinton a three-point edge. Giuliani narrows a lot of blue states, but there is no polling evidence to suggest that he can flip any of them.
FL-PRESIDENT (3 polls): Giuliani (R) 48.3%, Clinton (D) 43%
If one state has shown a pretty critical swing in the last month, it is the Sunshine State. Giuliani led in all three polls conducted this month: Schroth and The Polling Company (11/7) had Rudy up four, Mason Dixon (11/14) had Rudy up seven, and Rasmussen (11/14) had Rudy up by five. Are Florida Dems REALLY that pissed about the primary thing??!!??
GA-PRESIDENT: Giuliani (R) 48%, Clinton (D) 44%
Rasmussen (11/8) has this state closer than I have seen to date. While I might chalk this up to Rudy skepticism, it is worth noting that NO Republican blows Clinton out of the water here. Maybe there is just some generic Republican brand name fatigue at work here, even in this reddest of the red states.
GA-SENATE: Chambliss (R) 52%, Cardwell (D) 36%
Rasmussen (11/8) polls the Senate race here. This race should not be considered "safe" by anyone, if this poll is to be believed...Chambliss is hovering at around 50%, against guys that are essentially nobodies. He is a favorite...he is not a lock.
IA-PRESIDENT (2 polls): Clinton (D) 47.5%, Giuliani (R) 41.5%
Both SurveyUSA (11/11) and Research 2000 (11/14) poll the Hawkeye State for the general election, and they give HRC a lead of four points (SUSA) and eight points (R2000). Remember, this would be an electoral vote swing for the Democrats, as the state went very narrowly for GW Bush in 2004.
KY-PRESIDENT: Giuliani (R) 47%, Clinton (D) 41%
Rasmussen (11/1) polls this race (along with the now-completed Governors race and Senate race). For those into comparisons, Rasmussen had Beshear by 15, and he won by 18. Another state that was a 10+ edge for Bush...twice.
KY-SENATE: McConnell (R) 48%, Stumbo (D) 41%
A similar margin for Crit Luallen, and Rasmussen tells us with this poll what most in the Democratic Party already knew: the Senate minority leader is in fairly deep doo-doo.
MN-PRESIDENT: Clinton (D) 49%, Giuliani (R) 43%
While this is not as lopsided as some other Minnesota polls as of late, this SurveyUSA (11/11) poll still gives the Democrats a respectable lead in a state that was reasonably close in both 2000 and 2004.
MN-SENATE: Coleman (R) 48%, Ciresi (D) 44%
SurveyUSA (11/5) polled a bunch of Senate races for Roll Call. This result is in line with other results that have Coleman barely ahead of Mike Ciresi and Al Franken, usually polling at or under 50% of the vote.
MO-GOVERNOR: Nixon (D) 51%, Gov. Blunt (R) 42%
According to this Research 2000 survey (11/15), the boy governor is in dire straits against the Democrat, the longtime attorney general for Missouri. When your best poll all year has you leading by a single point, you are pretty damned vulnerable politically.
MO-PRESIDENT (2 polls): Clinton 45.5%, Giuliani 42%
Research 2000 (11/15) was joined this month by SurveyUSA (11/11) in polling the Show-Me State, with widely disparate results. Clinton leads by eight (47-39) in the R2000 poll, while SUSA has Giuliani leading by a single point (45-44).
NE-SENATE: Johanns (R) 59%, Kleeb (D) 28%
Nothing but good news for the GOP in this open seat race to replace Chuck Hagel. First Bob Kerrey demurs from a challenge, then this Research 2000 poll (11/14) shows Johanns up easily over the well-regarded Kleeb (who may still opt for a rematch against Adrian Smith in NE-3). Add to that the news this week that state attorney general Jon Bruning is planning to abandon his Republican bid for the Senate.
NM-SENATE (2 polls): Udall (D) 55.5%, Wilson (R) 39.5%
Research 2000 (11/7) and SurveyUSA (11/18) poll the state's newly open Senate race, and find that the most recent entry into the race, U.S. Rep. Tom Udall, is laying to waste Republican Heather Wilson. The SUSA poll also showed Udall leading the Democratic primary by 30 points, while Heather Wilson has a surprisingly wide 15 point lead over Congressman Steve Pearce.
NV-PRESIDENT: Giuliani 47%, Clinton 46%
CNN (11/13) polls the Silver State, and shows the race considerably closer than Nevada has been in other 2008 polls. After leading for most of the year here by margins between 5-10 points, the race here is now a tossup. This would be five new votes in the Democratic column, as Nevada went to Bush both in 2000 and 2004.
NY-PRESIDENT (2 polls): Clinton 45.5%, Giuliani 33.5%
Both Blum and Welprin (11/3) and Rasmussen (11/14) poll this race. A caveat to note: Rasmussen polls this as a three way race, adding Bloomberg as an Indie. The results were Clinton 42%, Giuliani 33%, and Bloomberg at 17%. A Bloomberg presence seems to be to the detriment of Clinton, as most two-way tabulations (including the Blum-Welprin poll) have HRC leading by at least 12-15 points.
OH-05: Bob Latta (R) 50%, Robin Weirauch (D) 36%
A CAVEAT: This is a partisan poll, conducted for the Latta campaign by Public Opinion Strategies. This race might be closer than most folks bargained for, if this P.O.S. poll is any indictation (P.O.S=Public Opinion Strategies, though read into it what you will...). When your own pollster has you at 50% in a district carried by Bush with 62%, that is not swell news.
OH-PRESIDENT (2 polls): Clinton 46.5%, Giuliani 43.5%
Quinnipiac (11/11) and SurveyUSA (11/11) poll this race on the same day, and get slightly different results. Quinnipiac has the race at a point, while SUSA has it at five points.
OR-PRESIDENT: Clinton 46%, Giuliani 45%
SurveyUSA (11/11) released this one yesterday, and this one has an interesting dynamic. Obama had much wider leads here over the GOP luminaries than does Clinton. Why the antipathy regarding Clinton in the state of Oregon? Hmm...
PA-PRESIDENT: Clinton 45%, Giuliani 43%
This cycle, Quinnipiac has been pretty bullish on Giuliani in polling, much more so than other pollsters. That streak continues here, as Quinnipiac (11/5) has the race a lot closer than other pollsters have had it in the Keystone State.
TN-PRESIDENT: Giuliani 45%, Clinton 42%
When Middle Tennessee State had Rudy and HRC tied in the Volunteer State last month, the righties immediately discarded it as a college poll with no validity. So what do they say this month, when Rasmussen (11/7) arrives at a similar result??!! The same poll had Bill Frist easily leading Harold Ford Jr. in a prospective 2010 gubernatorial throwdown.
VA-PRESIDENT: Clinton 45%, Giuliani 45%
This state, for decades a red state at the presidential level, has been a tossup in nearly every poll this year. That trend continues this month, as SurveyUSA (11/11) has the race tied up.
WA-PRESIDENT: Clinton 50%, Giuliani 43%
SurveyUSA (11/11) released this poll this morning, showing Hillary Clinton leading rather easily over Rudy in this blue (but not dark blue) state. Unlike Oregon, Clinton is considerably stronger in this state at the presidential level than Obama.
WI-PRESIDENT: Clinton 47%, Giuliani 37.5%
A slight caveat--one of these two polls (St. Norbert College--11/8) did not poll the Clinton/Giuliani trial heat, but a generic Democratic vs. Republican trial heat. This led to a twelve-point Democratic edge (45-33), while according to SUSA (11/11), Clinton leads the race over Giuliani by seven points (49-42). This was one of the few 2000/2004 blue states which the Republicans thought they could target and win. This month's polls are the widest edge here thus far for either party.
And that wraps up November at the polls. Enjoy the Turkey Day...which is actually the Turkey Weekend (God bless leftovers).