Cheney Resigns, Part Two.
Some folks found fault with my prognostication that Vice President Cheney would soon resign in favor of one of the leading Republican candidates.
Some argued that Cheney is the Master and would never give up the reins of power voluntarily. Yet these folks forget Dick Cheney’s real name, Darth Cheney. Like Darth Vader, he serves a Master or Masters more powerful than himself. (hint: not Bush) Like Darth Vader, Darth Cheney must do his Master’s bidding.
Bush and Cheney know the Republicans, (although not Ron Paul or Mike Huckabee,) must win the next presidential election and keep control of the Justice Department for the sake of their own skins. But the powers behind the throne have more urgent reasons. Literally billions of dollars would be lost if a Democrat wins the presidency. Will Halliburton be able to collect another billion dollars in no-bid contracts under Hillary Clinton? Will Blackwater collect another billion under President Obama? Will the oil companies be able to make 10 billion dollar profits in one quarter under President Edwards? Not likely. Desperate times call for desperate measures.
Some argue that resigning from the Vice Presidency would diminish Cheney’s power. Not true. First, Cheney has had seven years to put his minions into every department of the government. Hundreds of Asst. Secretaries to the Asst. Secretary of the Bureaucracy Department are Cheney appointees and loyalists. It is not necessary for Cheney to micromanage their work performance, they are true believers and they look forward to careers in and out of government over the next few decades while furthering their mutual goals and enriching themselves at taxpayer expense.
Secondly, Cheney did not achieve the position of most powerful vice-president in history because of the inherent powers delegated by the constitution to the office of the vice-president, which I believe only consists of Article 56: Ye vice-president shall empty the White House spittoons at least once a fortnight.
Cheney’s power comes from his power of persuasion. Cheney has been called many names but rarely has he been called what he actually is, a Svengali, that is, one who persuades or forces another to do his bidding, usually with evil intentions. Is it because pundits and journalists have been intimidated and castrated, or is it because they have not read George du Maurier’s novel "Trilby?" Whatever the reason, Cheny’s power doesn’t ultimately derive from his constitutional office.
How else to explain how Cheney has managed to convince Bush to pursue Cheney’s suggestions and policies to the detriment of the country and even Bush’s own reputation. Cheney knows how to push the right buttons and convince Bush to embrace the Dark Side. In return, Bush gets to call himself "the Decider." Cheney’s influence would not diminish because of distance, but only because of the new political reality in Washington. While Cheney finds the constitutional process quaint, even he is constrained by the threat of congressional investigations and the few remaining honest federal prosecutors.
Cheney prefers to operate in the shadows anyway, and will always be lurking in the background as a trusted advisor to Bush. As for Bush, he is like many men in high positions who doubt their own abilities and who are too lazy to work at improving the talents they have or lack. Bush adopts or co-opts his advisors ideas and suggestions as if they are his own. Whether he even knows or cares he is being manipulated doesn’t matter.
Still, the main reason why Cheney can resign now is because he can truly say, my work here is done.
In an AP article printed in the November 27 Atlanta Journal Constitution, "U.S. Promises an Enduring Iraq Presence" Ben Feller reports that on Monday, November 26th, Bush and Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Malilki "signed a deal setting the foundation for a potential long term U.S. troop presence in Iraq," with the details to be negotiated later. The AP article includes the information that the number of troops and bases are to be finalized by July 2008.
Of course, it isn’t likely that Bush will sign any final deal deciding troop levels before the election which the Democrats can use to their advantage. But the Associated Press article in the AJC leaves out the most important information about the "Declaration of Principles," that is, that the deal also begins the process of setting the parameters for U.S. business interests to operate in Iraq, i.e., Iraq is finally being made safe for the U.S. oil companies. Mission Accomplished!
According to other news reports, two senior Iraqi officials, speaking anonymously, said that among the details to be negotiated will be preferential treatment for American investments.
Since the various groups in Iraq have been unable to agree on reconciliation and oil sharing laws, it was necessary for the administration to do this end run around the Iraqi constitutional process. Of course, the main sticking point in agreeing on an oil sharing law was the administration’s insistence that U.S. oil companies control the marketing of Iraqi oil. The Shia’s thought they could get a better oil deal from China or even Iran, while the Sunni's knew they could get a better oil deal from the French or Germans.
With this oil deal in hand, or at least, in process, Cheney can safely say that he has accomplished almost all of his goals. If the Pentagon succeeds in convincing Bush that attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities would be an unmitigated disaster, then there is nothing left for Cheney to do in the remaining months of a lame duck administration.
Also, since the apparent resignation of Karl Rove, a sense of reality has inexplicably seeped into the Bush administration.
For example, New York Times reporter Sheryl Gay Stolberg, in an article reprinted in the November 25 Atlanta Journal Constitution, "As Term Ticks Down, Bush Tackles Basics," explains that for the remainder of the Bush term, the President will be playing "small ball," or concentrating on what White House aides call, "kitchen table issues." With the Democrats controlling Congress, Bush and Cheney have no chance to pass any major initiatives.
Stolblerg’s article describes how Bush spent the past week conducting a photo op in which he announced federal protection for two species of game fish which were already federally protected, and signed an executive order opening up additional air space for the Thanksgiving weekend which the FAA could have opened without executive action. Bush also came out strongly against unsafe toys for children and tainted food.
The article described how President Clinton followed a very similar and effective strategy when the Republicans took control of Congress. Clinton concentrated on family friendly issues like school uniforms, and crackdowns on dead beat dads, and he signed executive orders to clean up the air and establish national monuments. While the Washington insiders snickered, Clinton’s approval ratings went through the roof.
Bush’s new White House counselor Ed Gillespie is given credit for this new strategy, and it should be as effective as Clinton’s. The media has long since moved on from the Iraq war, and over the next year, the administration will be pointing out that the occupation of Iraq is apparently, if gradually, winding down. Even now, the troops from the Iraq surge are scheduled to begin coming home and since there are no troops available to replace them, Bush will be able to point to an ongoing reduction in American forces in Iraq. The troop reductions will ameliorate the effectiveness of the Democrats main issue.
The five combat brigades participating in the surge are scheduled to return home by July 2008. If our new best friends the Sunnis and our old best friends the Shias can be convinced or bribed to keep the lid on the violence until after November, Bush will be able to declare Victory in Iraq in the crucial months leading up to the election.
In this day and age, it is only necessary to declare victory to achieve it in as far as the political ramifications are concerned. The Bush administration first took note of this in Mississippi after Katrina. While the Democrats in Louisiana and New Orleans were crying for help, Republican Governor Haley Barber in Mississippi declared Mission Accomplished!, and the national media accepted his declaration without question. No matter that the two state’s situations were entirely different and that New Orleans took the brunt of the storm. No matter that neither state has done anything of note to rebuild the homes of lower and middle income residents.
The most recent example of this phenomenon was the California wild fires, one of the biggest fire disasters in American history, and probably the most costly. Republican Governor Arnold Terminator declared Mission Accomplished! while the flames were still roaring, completely ignoring the fact that 2196 homes and 800 square miles were being burned to cinders. The Terminator conveniently ignored the fact that the loss of many of these homes could have been prevented had more manpower, the California National Guard for example, been assigned to fighting the fires instead of hunting insurgents in Iraq. Once Governor Terminator declared victory, the national press lost all interest in the story and failed to do any follow-up or further questioning. It was too easy.
Democrats are guilty of wishful thinking if they believe that the Bush administration will be an albatross around the neck of the next Republican presidential candidate. The combination of small ball issues like executive proclamations against using dangerous pesticides on litter bugs and a seeming victory in Iraq will bring the Bush approval rating back up to the mid 40’s at least by the fall of 2008.
Once Darth Cheney resigns, and once the White House charm offensive is in full operation, the ever forgiving and naïve American electorate will be trembling in anticipation at the opportunity to forgive George Bush for all of his past mistakes. Redemption after falling from grace is a story-line that plays out every day in the American heartland, if not the cynical city or blogosphere. (See Trent Lott, et al)
Being the incumbent vice-president is no guarantee of victory in any situation, but the affable Fred Thompson will literally bring a breath of fresh air to the White House as the smell of sulfur is vented from Cheney’s suite of offices.
If the two candidates enter the final week of the campaign within a few points of each other in the polls, the vote counters will be able to deliver a Republican victory. It won’t be done the same way it was done in 2000 or 2004, but in a entirely new and unanticipated manner. Karl Rove has a year to figure out how to do it.