Holy smokes.
From the Politico:
President Bush won 61 percent of the vote in the district in 2004. But a poll conducted for Latta’s campaign last week showed him trailing Weirauch by four points, according to a GOP operative.
And the money streaming into the Bowling Green-based district from both sides confirms the very real concerns that Republicans have about the race. The National Republican Congressional Committee has poured in more than $428,000 — nearly one-fifth of the committee’s entire campaign account — for advertising, direct mail and phone banks within the last week.
As you know, the DCCC has countered with $250,000 in the district as well, and now we know why.
Yes, it's a very Republican district. Yes, the DCCC's own internals don't show numbers quite this good. Yes, the only important poll happens tonight in the actual election (this poll was commissioned last week).
Still, there's plenty of reason to be optimistic about this race. Weirauch has run unashamedly as an economic populist and opponent of free trade, and not only has she withstood the GOP's attacks on her "extreme liberalism", she has gained real traction in a district where Democrats simply are not supposed to compete.
And since the GOP has made it clear that they intend to run, both here and nationally, by using immigration and brown people as a scarecrow, a victory here would throw their entire strategy for 2008 into serious doubt (not to mention, it would be a victory for those of us who believe the GOP's demonizing of immigrants is hateful).
In a sense, we have already succeeded in this district by getting the NRCC, already in serious financial trouble, to spend $430,000 on what should have been a gimme. And by waging a genuinely competitive race in this district, we've set ourselves up for a nice post-election narrative even if we lose: if Republicans are having trouble holding on to districts like this one, what will they do with the more balanced districts next fall? What effect will this have on potential recruits and donors who see strongly Republican districts nearly falling...or actually falling? Will they start to think their time and money might be best served elsewhere?
I don't want to get too carried away. I still wouldn't bank on us taking this election.
But so far, everything which we needed to go right, in order to win this district, has gone right.
Todd Hoffman has an excellent diary on GOTV for this election.