The Des Moines Register will make its endorsements in tomorrow's paper (announced today) for the presidential caucuses next month. Who will it choose? Historically, with the exception of 2000, the Register's endorsement has been incredibly influential--particularly in Des Moines and Central Iowa. In recent contested races, it has endorsed:
1984: Walter Mondale
1988: Paul Simon
2000: Bill Bradley
2004: John Edwards
While this is a small sample, Midwestern (or at least rural) backgrounds are helpful in getting the endorsement. Interestingly, both Mondale and Simon were the sons of Methodist ministers.
In a post in The New Republic's The Stump blog, Noam Scheiber speculated that the Register would make a surprise endorsement of Biden (he said it would undercut Hillary's "experience" argument), then added a footnote:
Update: Okay, maybe a longer shot than I thought. Just got word from a reasonably informed source--someone not in a position to know with certainty, but in a position to know what various Democratic campaign insiders expect--that it's going to be Edwards again. We'll find out Sunday...
Now that would be interesting. Edwards, with the Register's endorsement, would have a real shot at winning. Hillary would probably be happy about that since it would blunt Obama's momentum--especially if Obama would finish third.
Update: The WSJ now claims that Obama is the favorite for the endorsement:
Odds Are on Obama to Get
Iowa Paper's Endorsement
By CHRISTOPHER COOPER
December 15, 2007; Page A2
In an age of bloggers and bulk email, some may find it refreshing to come across an ink-stained monolith with the power to make or break a campaign. A Democratic presidential endorsement from the Des Moines Register is imminent, probably coming Sunday or a week hence.
...
Political operatives credit the paper's endorsement with raising the campaign of then-obscure North Carolina Sen. John Edwards in 2004. He went on to place a strong second in the Iowa caucus and won a spot on the presidential ticket. But history may not repeat itself. Even Edwards aides say it is unlikely he will win the prize this time around.
Since 2004, the paper's editorial board has undergone heavy turnover. That six of the seven in the group are women hasn't been lost on political observers, who wonder if this might give Mrs. Clinton an edge.
But speculation tilts heavily toward Mr. Obama, who opposed the Iraq war from the beginning. Some think the Register prefers to back candidates who aren't establishment favorites, a description that may apply more to Mr. Obama. After all, everyone likes to play kingmaker
.