You may be thinking, the AEI? Why would you listen to anything they say, and why should I care?
When George Bush was reelected in 2004, I remember the shock and horror most of my friends expressed. Who voted for Bush? I certainly didn't know anyone who was voting for Bush and I'm sure the majority of you didn't either. I read salon.com very frequently those days and when a writer dared suggest that Bush may be reelected, his fellow colleagues and readers would bash the absurdity of his suggestion.
No more, I said. I now try to hear other arguments and understand those you can't understand with reason... here is looking at you, gut! I even watched Ann Coulter the other night, the self-described "Christian first and a mean-spirited, bigoted conservative second". It is very informative to hear her talk, you get a better sense of the people you're dealing with. But I digress...
The America Enterprise Institute had its "Election Watch 2008 (Session 1)" on Thursday and I watched it live on C-SPAN. For those of you who don't know this "conservative Think Tank", you should look them up. They were instrumental in bringing us the war in Iraq and have desperately tried to spread their same notion of peace and democracy to Iran as well.
It was very encouraging to hear them express their opinion that Democrats will gain up to 6-7 seats in the Senate and a bunch of seats in the House in 2008, but also that regardless of who the Democratic Nominee would be, he or she would be more likely to win the White House than a Republican.
Also interesting was their take on the Democratic Primaries. Michael Barone described three possibilities:
1- Hillary winning in Iowa, followed by a win in New Hampshire, making her nomination a foregone conclusion.
2- Obama winning in Iowa and winning New Hampshire as a result of the boost, then South Carolina and very likely become the nominee as the result.
3- Edwards winning Iowa with Obama a close second. He expressed the opinion that Edwards would not have a chance in NH, which could then go to either Obama or Hillary. Either way, he called this scenario for Hillary with a very small chance for Obama. He believes that Edwards lacks the financing and national support to be competitive, even with an Iowa win, because New Hampshire would never follow.