Now that Iowa's most widely read newspaper has delivered its highly anticipated endorsement -- giving the nod in the Democratic presidential primary to Senator Hillary Clinton -- there's a new game: arguing over what this endorsement means.
Democratic candidates and their representatives have courted and coveted the Des Moines Register's endorsement through personal visits, telephone calls, and written messages. Members of the newspaper's editorial board have interviewed candidates, pored over position papers, and digested books by or about the candidates.
But it remains to be seen whether the Register, Iowa's statewide newspaper of record, will be a kingmaker (or queenmaker). What do you believe will be the likely impact in the 2007 primary of this highly sought endorsement? What's your opinion of how this will affect key aspects of campaigning, such as publicity, media spin, fundraising, and get-out-the-vote efforts? And, in the end, will this endorsement deliver enough votes to change the outcome in Iowa?
First, here's a quick round-up of what some pundits said about the endorsement before it was announced tonight.
On MSNBC's daily political roundup page First Read, Carrie Dan stated:
For context: the Des Moines Register endorsement proved a key boost for [John] Edwards in 2004. With a mere eight days until the caucuses, the nod to Edwards super-charged his momentum to yield a surprise second-place finish. The Register's endorsement has proved influential in three of the last four cycles; they backed caucus victor Walter Mondale in 1984 and second-place shower Paul Simon in 1988. (The fluke year was 2000, when the Register's endorsement of Bill Bradley fell flat in the two-man race with Al Gore.)
This thumbnail review suggests that while the Register's coveted endorsement carries a real impact, it does not necessarily determine who will finish first even in the Iowa primary or which candidate will eventually emerge to claim the Democratic presidential nomination.
Jeff Zeleny of The New York Times stated today that while the newspaper's endorsement is highly coveted, it remains to be seen whether it will deliver enough votes to change the outcome in Iowa:
Whether the endorsement will deliver enough votes to make a difference in the Iowa race is of course an open question. Yet each of the Democratic campaigns has vigorously pursued it, hoping to build momentum in the final weeks.... Four years ago, John Edwards won the endorsement, which he believes helped propel him to a second-place finish in the caucuses.
The Wall Street Journal'sChristopher Cooper stated that the Iowa newspaper's endorsement could "make or break" a campaign:
In an age of bloggers and bulk email, some may find it refreshing to come across an ink-stained monolith with the power to make or break a campaign. A Democratic presidential endorsement from the Des Moines Register is imminent...
Though its circulation is only about half the 500,000 of the 1960s, the Register remains the only statewide newspaper in Iowa and a political powerhouse. With its tradition of liberalism, it is particularly influential among Democrats.
This "make or break" talk seems more like bluster than sound historical analysis. When the Register backed Senator Bill Bradley over Vice President Al Gore in 2000, the endorsement did not break Gore's campaign. Gore easily trounced Bradley, winning 64 percent of the vote.
On the other hand, when Edwards had already built momentum in 2004, the Register endorsement provided an even stronger gust of wind in his sails; he exceeded expectations by surging to finish second in the Iowa caucuses.
Well, what do the pundits know? More important, what's your opinion on whether this highly sought after endorsement will deliver enough votes to change the outcome in Iowa?