I just came back from four days volunteering for the Edwards campaign in Iowa, and before I go any further I want to urge everyone who possibly can to take a few days or a week off and go help. For better or worse, the future of our country is being decided in Iowa on January 3.
I am convinced that the country is going to be in for a shock on January 4 when the results are announced. My observations are based on four days of 1) telephoning random lists of registered Democrats to invite them to upcoming events during which calls I also talked to anyone willing about their current positions on the caucus candidates 2) canvassing door to door with lists of likely caucus participants (based on past participation I assume) and 3) talking to everyone I could at coffee shops, restaurants etc.
- People have been underestimating the strength of Edwards' support. Quite simply almost every Edwards supporter that I spoke with told me that they were with him in 04. Those people are simply rock solid. Edwards' numbers (averaging 23 on Real Clear Politics) are probably his absolute floor from which he can only grow.
- I was amazed by how soft the Obama support is. I knocked on doors that had an Obama yard sign and met people that are still not sure whether they will caucus for Obama or Edwards. I was amazed by how old the Clinton support was and consequently how vulnerable they are to bad weather.
- The number of truly undecided Iowa Democrats who will definitely caucus but are still gathering information and making up their minds is huge. In an election that is this close the way those undecideds break in the last week is likely to make one of the three candidates a big winner and another a big loser.
- I spoke to rural organizers who went through the Edwards surge in 04 and swear the exact same thing is happening now - only he is starting with the floor of 23 percent. His events are filling up with people that have still not made up their mind and they are liking what they are seeing.
America is going to be shocked by the strength of Edwards' January 3, Iowa caucus victory, and now is the time for supporters to make the extra effort and go there yourself. Volunteers are warmly welcomed at the headquarters and immediately put to work.
UPDATE - I want to add the following in the diary, rather then just add it as a comment, but one of the things that greatly pleased me when I canvassed was when people (Iowans) said to me that they admired that I had come all the way there (in the cold) to canvas and because of that wanted to hear why I believed so strongly in my candidate. It was an incredible experience. I wish I could have stayed longer or could go back again and urge everyone who can to make a trip.